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Thank you for the post - I fear that as testing numbers increase, and the asymptomatic infections are discovered, the FluBros will only say that everything is fine.

They tend to cherry pick the mortality data and forget the more important ICU rates.

And if we do manage to squash this bug, they’ll be the first to say, “See!, told ya it was just the Flu, Bro!”

Ask (ICU), and you shall receive. Seriously, why am I the only cranking out these projections? You guys come up with scenarios, and then sit around speculating with -0- information.

Assumptions: 3 ICU beds per CV fatal (1/3 succumb, 2/3 are released); 3 day occupancy (before fatal/discharge). Multiply cumulative gross fatals x 3, lag by 4 days, produce net-net.

I have no idea what US ICU capacity is - either current, coming on-line within 24-48 hours, or additional staged in backlog. If anyone has that number, we can run it against projected ICU demand.

Data source (cum fatals: 23 day actual, days 24-32 projected)

USA	ICU per fatal	3		
Day	Cum Total	Gross	Released	Net
				
1	1	3		3
2	2	6		6
3	6	18		18
4	9	27	3	24
5	12	36	6	30
6	14	42	18	24
7	18	54	27	27
8	19	57	36	21
9	22	66	42	24
10	26	78	54	24
11	31	93	57	36
12	38	114	66	48
13	42	126	78	48
14	49	147	93	54
15	56	168	114	54
16	62	186	126	60
17	75	225	147	78
18	96	288	168	120
19	122	366	186	180
20	174	522	225	297
21	229	687	288	399
22	294	882	366	516
23	401	1,203	522	681
24	452	1,357	687	670
25	540	1,619	882	737
26	626	1,877	1,203	674
27	745	2,234	1,357	877
28	851	2,554	1,619	935
29	1,008	3,024	1,877	1,147
30	1,206	3,619	2,234	1,385
31	1,369	4,107	2,554	1,553
32	1,519	4,558	3,024	1,534

Yet again I'll mention anyone can use these models. Just shoot me a PM for a link.

Want to increase the number of ICU beds required per fatal, and/or extend each stay in order to increase total ICU required? Want to look at it by region? Again, be my guest; knock yourself out.

ICU?