Posted on 03/23/2020 9:51:15 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3827099/posts?page=1
” I can’t speak for the power grid outside of western Washington- but out here we are a combination of hydro and refined fuel. “
Nuclear-generated power from eastern WA (my territory) supports you as well. Operators will work in haz-mat suits if they have to.
My best friend is a long term substitute teacher and she's generally too busy to do that sort of stuff, and now she has the time, and is getting back into it while she can.
As are MANY people I know, myself included.
Of course we are also moving and doing home repairs for putting the house on the market, so I have LOTS to do.
No boredom on this front.
No doubt manufactured goods will be in short supply over the next 6-12 months.
Normally we could say the supply chains could reconfigure in that period of time.
But these are not normal times. Every country in the world is going to have to deal with this.
Food stocks in the US will be far, far more than adequate. As will most consumer goods.
Medicines, not so much.
Good old grannies!
I bet that was the best Christmas jelly, ever.
Sweet memory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2kA73RWPDs
Anybody speak Dutch.
Same channel, check out Parts 9 and 10.
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
THREAD: There’s a strong and understandable desire to return to better times and a functioning economy. But it should not be lost on anyone that there’s no such thing as a functioning economy and society so long as covid-19 continues to spread uncontrolled in our biggest cities.
So long as covid-19 spreads uncontrolled, older people will die in historic numbers, middle aged folks doomed to prolonged ICU stays to fight for their lives, hospitals will be overwhelmed, and most Americans terrified to leave homes, eat out, take the subway, or go to the park.
The only way to return to a stable economy and restore our liberty, is to end epidemic spread of covid-19. We need a massive effort to offset the hardship of these efforts, and the public health costs they impose, as there are more than economic costs to the measures we’re taking
But there’s no functioning healthcare with hospitals overwhelmed, no return to work with people terrified of a virus raging uncontrolled. There are two ways to end this. Let a vast swath of people catch covid which is unthinkable, or break the epidemic. We must choose the latter
This pathogen brought China to a standstill, with perhaps greater lethality than Spanish Flu. Many middle-aged people are suffering long stays in ICU and survive only after weeks of critical care. Make no mistake about it, this pathogen spares nobody, except thankfully the young.
There’s no easy return. We must accept a sober truth. This pathogen has altered history and changed our world. But it caught us at a time when we have the public health tools, technology, and know how to defeat it quickly and vanquish it for good. We must stay on the battlefield.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1242282560106958854
Comment: I still wish he was on our task force
The Lt Gov of Texas suggested grandparents would be okay dying to preserve the economy for their grandkids. He didn’t say that exactly but pretty much what he meant.
==
He said it would be best to let the grandparents isolate, to NOT get sick, and let the rest of America work, rather than collapse the economy, once the 15 days is up.
I guess he has an endless supply of .... supplies :- /
“I have a gut feeling this virus is just the beginning of some really serious readjusting for most of humanity.”
Since we’re STILL not taking this seriously, I’m thinking that, at this point, our standard of living will decline to where we were 50 or so years ago. And if we keep playing games with letting the virus burn through, and then start taking it seriously when we realize just what that means, then we’re looking at reverting to depression-level living.
Either way, what was normal just 2 months ago is GONE, probably for decades, at least in this country.
Lt Gov Dan Patrick TX needs to listen to Dr Gottleib.
“PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT - don’t take Fish chemicals”
It would be nice to know some details, assuming it’s even a true story.
As it is, I have some fish chemicals and I’ll take them if I need them and this country hasn’t bothered getting around to produce any.
Here are a couple of stories.
Do you guys do any research? The Flubros are pretty demanding, yet I rarely see them quote anyone but Trump and Rush.
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463
It took literally a second to find these. Put in some effort....
1. Worldwide, as I write this, there have been 16,514 deaths and 102,069 recoveries. That means that out of all the closed cases, 13.9% have died. Has there ever been a flu epidemic with that kind of fatality rate among diagnosed cases?
2. In Italy, those numbers are 6,077 and 7,432, respectively. So 45% of closed cases have died. Seems pretty high to me. So if we assume that there are actually 10 times as many closed cases (i.e., people who had COVID-19 and recovered without being diagnosed), the numbers become 6,077/(6,077 + 74,320), which still gives a fatality rate among closed cases of 7.6%. Are you aware of any other communicable disease with such a high fatality rate?
3. In the United States things are still pretty early, with regard to closed cases. Still, we have 553 deaths and 295 recoveries, leading to a fatality rate among closed cases of 65.2%. If we assume that really, there are twenty times as many closed cases as we know about (i.e., people who had COVID-19 but recovered without ever being diagnosed), the fatality rate comes out to 8.5%.
4. Given the wide disparity of fatality rates among closed cases, do you think it's possible that there has been a mutation, or a separate strain that is more deadly and more prevalent in some geographic areas than others?
5. Since February 28, the number of confirmed cases has grown at a rate of 31.8% per day, or 690.2% per week. This means the number of confirmed cases is doubling every 2.51 days. If the number of confirmed cases continues to increase at that rate, then two weeks from today there will be over 2.2 million confirmed cases. Do you have any reason to believe that this rate of increase will not continue over the next two weeks?
6. Do you have any reason to believe that the fatality rate (even the low-ball rate of 8.5% we have in the U.S.) will improve under these circumstances in the next two weeks?
7. If one is interested in determining the seriousness of an epidemic, it seems to me that you would want to know, among other things, 1) how transmissible the disease is, expressed, for example, by how quickly the number of cases doubles, 2) how many people, on average, an infected person transmits the disease to, and 3) the death rate among closed cases. All of these factors seem to point to a very rapidly spreading disease that, when all is said and done, will kill far more than the average flu. Where is the fault in this logic?
GA governor Kemp as well
Scott is arguing with something Trump didn’t say.
Anyway, people need to see an end to this, at some point. For morale: It’s a fight we’ll win. Trump has to encourage that.
I’ve got 9 more days with my son at home till he’s off again. He’s staying put and is healthy. But, it bothers me that he will be God knows where for 3 weeks soon.
This had nothing to do with Trump, Dr. Gottlieb has been writing these kinds of threads daily for months.
We had a national storehouse of medical supplies that were depleted by H1N1 and Obama failed to restock it.
Was obvious to many when a billion Chinese were on lockdown that this was a global event. Stunning to see the stupidity by this tasked to protect the public.
18% are requiring hospitalization. What percentage require ventilators?
At some point we hit the “nobody over 60” gets one like Italy does now.
New York and New Orleans medical systems will collapse within the next week. Field hospitals. Madison Square Garden. Superdome
The Chinese makeshifts hospitals were killing fields. Very basic treatment. 40 incinerators brought in to burn the bodies. All that with killing whistleblowers and controlling the media.
We will just see the bodies in the hallways and piled up on the news every night.
There you go, Lt. Good job.
As I said, “A few of them because they just can’t get their brain around it and are in denial. A lot of them because they are self obsessed.”
Paging Dr. Bob . . . .
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