Also, see reply above - this same analysis can be performed at increased granularity for states like CA, NY, etc versus Italy, Korea, etc. If anyone wants the sheet to play around/copy, just PM me and I'll send a link.
It's important to note that the only real data points we have are actual recorded deaths. Everything else is pure speculation/estimates/projections - for example, cases. What exactly is a "case", and is it growing simply due to increased testing? Since it's basically an entirely useless metric, why compare it to deaths? It just corrupts real information we have on mortality patterns that are beginning to emerge.
I must once again mention that Wastoute (MD) is the one who began pointing out last week that all we really need to do is follow deaths. Over time, with each additional day, a pattern will begin to emerge that clearly presents the exponential factors and provide us with a clear plateau/peak when actually reached. (That is, peak deaths are approx 12-14 days after peak infections.)
We don't really need to know total infections either, other than curiosity about population dynamics. Not only are actual recorded mortality figures the most accurate data we have, but they are also the most relevant in terms of capacity planning. (Total feeling ill, total checking in at health care facilities, total admitted, total upgraded to ICU, total dead.)
The key take away so far is we are far, far off the experience taking place in Italy. Sure, we could have a burst of activity, but it would take some pretty incredible daily increases to move the overall US mortality rate up at this point. Not saying it couldn't happen, but as each day progresses in the 25% zone, it will become increasing difficult for the curve to really ramp up in an asymptotic manner.
What that means is different for different people. For people like me, it tells me this crisis is already over. I don't see how we could even hit 50k deaths over the next 4-8 weeks, unless everything that's been experienced/recorded so far was either grossly in error, or there's some kind of 2nd stage CV follow up that goes batshit crazy.
Thank you. Your eloquence exceeds mine. 5,000 deaths cumulative by a week to ten days. If we have been successful “staying on the couch” there is the asymptote and it should drop of quickly. We can do what no country in the world could do. “AMerican Exceptionalism.”
If you focus on deaths, you will miss the big picture.
Focus on hospitalizations.
If the health care system gets overwhelmed, the big death counts will be from the lives that are routinely saved by hospitals today that will not be saved—far far more than ever die from the CV.
Thanks! I've been trying to find detailed data for the states. The JHU data is detailed enough but numbers seem inaccurate.
It's important to note that the only real data points we have are actual recorded deaths.
Totally agree. The numbers also offer the fastest indicator of how well we're doing in the fight.
For people like me, it tells me this crisis is already over. I don't see how we could even hit 50k deaths over the next 4-8 weeks, unless everything that's been experienced/recorded so far was either grossly in error, or there's some kind of 2nd stage CV follow up that goes batshit crazy.
I'm hopeful that new treatments that have been found to work, will drastically lower the death rate. But I remain watchful and guardedly optimistic. And as someone pointed out to me earlier, even if the death rate falls, if the healthcare system is inundated, deaths from other ailments will rise because of the lack of appropriate care.
Finally you have the economic, civil unrest, and country against country ball rolling downhill, gaining momentum. Who knows how far down the slope it will travel.