[wastoute]

It just hit me. I had an epiphany. Your a financial guy. You are using the tools you are comfortable with to understand what’s happening. That’s why this looks like a wall of numbers to me. Look at the doubling rate. We are in the exponential phase. I don;t even know what all those daily percentages mean. I know how an epidemic behaves. I don’t have to assume it can go all over the place. I know the path an epidemic has to take. I can go set up my stand and shoot it like an elk. Money guys can’t do that.

[semantic]

Both Italy and US daily CV fatalities dropped from the day before. Anomaly (most likely) or true peaks?

For finance/numbers people, drop me a PM if you want a link to the native sheet. It's pretty easy to run all kinds of projections based on different input assumptions. For example, what is the growth rate required for US to hit 25k deaths within 4 weeks, etc.

You can also experiment with relationships to infections, symptoms, hospitalization, ICU and deaths. That is, if you think 5% of ICU patients succumb, then you would need 20x ICU beds per death. Run that and compare to existing and coming on-line capacity.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

R0 between 1.7 and 4. If it were just a flu-like R0 (around 1.5 or maybe less) we could handle this thing easy-peasy.