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To: kabar; Kozak; aMorePerfectUnion; gas_dr; dp0622; null and void; DoughtyOne; Vermont Lt; ...
I wanted to get your opinions on something I uncovered that may be a bright spot (so to speak) on where we are vs other countries. Yes, it's hard to smile when you're in the early days of battle, but give me a moment.

There is a concept in statistics called "standardization" where you take all numeric values that differ, e.g., like age in months and height in inches and weight in kg, and put them on a common scale. To wit: is the US with 25,489 cases yesterday worse off than Switzerland and her 6,575 cases or France and her 14,431 cases?

I pulled down the Confirmed Case data used by JH that is housed on GitHub and then pulled in the population counts by country (and state) from the UN (yea, I know...work with me). In the table below, I list select countries and US states' Confirmed Case Counts. I then 'standarize' that data by dividing each nation or state's Confirmed Case Count by the respective population, then I multiply that standardized value by the US' population, to put each nation/state's Confirmed Case Count on a standardized basis.

(special thanks to ShadowAce for the html sandbox)

Country/Region Population (MM) Confirmed Cases 3/21/2020 Standardized Cases 3/21/2020 Rank by Confirmed Cases Mar 21 Rank by Standardized Cases Mar 21
Austria 9.0 2,814 103,403 15 7
Belgium 11.5 2,815 80,275 14 11
California 39.5 1,364 11,360 19 21
China 1,433.8 81,421 18,687 1 19
Denmark 5.8 1,420 80,957 18 10
Florida 21.5 659 10,097 21 23
France 65.1 14,431 72,912 8 12
Germany 83.5 22,213 87,521 6 8
Hubei 58.5 67,800 381,378 2 1
Iran 82.9 20,610 81,796 7 9
Italy 60.6 53,578 291,175 3 2
Korea, South 51.2 8,799 56,524 12 14
Massachusetts 6.9 525 24,859 23 18
New Jersey 8.9 1,327 49,162 20 15
New York 19.5 11,710 198,079 10 4
Norway 5.4 2,118 129,574 16 6
Pennsylvania 12.8 396 10,179 24 22
Spain 46.7 25,374 178,654 5 5
Sweden 10.0 1,763 57,804 17 13
Switzerland 8.6 6,575 251,834 13 3
Texas 29.0 581 6,594 22 24
United Kingdom 67.5 10,084 49,138 11 16
US 329.1 25,489 25,489 4 17
US excl NY 329.1 13,779 14,645 9 20

Well..the US, with her fourth highest number of Confirmed Cases at the end of March 21, 2020 is actually 17th on this list when you adjust for the population!

Further, if you remove New York (which is accounting for about half of the US' growth over the past three days), the US is the 20th lowest out of these 24 select countries/states.

China gets a pickup because of it's huge population, but Hubei remains at the top, as does Italy.

Perhaps most shocking is Switzerland: she looks like a standardized disaster, with a size-adjusted 250k Confirmed Case load. Similarly, New York State on a size-adjusted basis looks like Italy and Switzerland. In fact, Europe looks pretty bad as a group - except for the United Kingdom.

Now, it's not the first inning for every country; it's like the top of the 8th in China while it's the top of the third (or something like that) in the US and probably the bottom of the 6th in Italy. Thus, some enterprising smart Deplorable could/should set all countries data at the same 'starting point.' That, however, is pretty hard to do since each nation's starting point and progression is unique.

If I'm right, then the economic and human wreckage that's overwhelming Europe and which has overwhelmed Asia is starting in America. But we seem to be in a relatively better position on a size-adjusted basis. Maybe that's because we've been 'attacked' later in the process. It's also worth noting, as I showed, that the major areas and cities seem to be getting hit harder than other areas: look at New York and New Jersey vs Texas or Pennsylvania or even California. My guess is those areas that light up at night will be hit relatively harder:

It's also worth noting...

...I'm just sayin'...

Seriously, I am not wishing harm to my fellow man, regardless of their views. We are Americans, and like after 9/11 today I stand with my countrymen, shoulder-to-shoulder. Today, I will pray and watch/listen to church service on TV. I will pray for my fellow man, regardless of race, creed, national origin, or if they are Patriots fans. I will pray for wisdom for those who are ignorant, and for calm for those who are hysterical.

And I will pray that the US comes out of this mess, stronger than ever, in order for America to lead the world back to peace and prosperity. Domine, non sum dignus ut intres sub tectum meum, sed tantum dic verbo, et sanabitur anima mea.

442 posted on 03/22/2020 9:05:38 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

100% correct, from taking per capita rates to “Lord, I am not worthy,” although you are at least as worthy as any of us.

We are early in the spread of this, it’s primarily urban, and we’re hitting the bigger numbers while we possess the knowledge gained in those countries that didn’t block Chinese travelers to stop this Chinese virus (I love saying that because it freaks out far-left lurkers). If we can just confirm a treatment (such as quinine and antibiotics, or an anti-viral), we can save lives, reopen the country, and stop the economic devastation.


443 posted on 03/22/2020 9:14:21 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
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To: DoodleBob

I am following worldodometer. I am going to say right now there is either error or manipulation manipulation on the New York numbers. The reason why I say this is yesterday prior to 2400 Greenwich meantime New York was reporting 3600 cases they only reported 19 on the overall tally when you scan back to you yesterday if you take the 1700 missing cases in extrapolate them to today New York looks like it’s about level I think that there is a data integrity issue here it may just be the vicissitudes of how it resets around 2400 Greenwich meantime but that is very spurious in how it is affecting the overall data between yesterday and today I will continue to watch this closely but in less things rapidly changed multiple countries remain on a downward curve in terms of


444 posted on 03/22/2020 10:22:27 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America)
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