Per JHU CSSE, at 10:43 PDT today: of RESOLVED cases:
12,755 deaths/
91,540 recovered
⇒13.9%
Correct, that is not 11%
That should be:
12,755 deaths/
(91,540 recovered+12,755 deaths)
⇒12.2%
Sorry. I'm pretty fried...
Actually 12755+91540=104295 completed cases.(deaths +recovered)...then 12755/104295 and you get your running death rate vs total completed cases we know about so far or .122 or 12.2 percent.(or did you subtract the Chinese numbers already?) 12.2 percent...hmmm my 11 percent figures have gone upwards.
If you take out Chinese recovered and reported death rates then the numbers are starker... 9500 deaths + 20540 total recovered)=30040 closed cases that we know about then 9500/30040=.314 or 31.4 percent in the rest of the world...Italy is skewing the numbers higher but I haven’t yet decided to figure the numbers without China and Italy. iran I haven’t decided on....I feel like they are putting out higher numbers in a sort of median way...mixing a little fiction with truth which would be very Muslim of them but I’ve kept them in for now.
I didn’t mean to say Italy was lying or over exaggerating...I’m just curious about what the rates are in the rest of the world without Italy or China or Iran...maybe I’ll do it when the mood strikes.
In America, NYC is our big skewing source now...we’ll need a few days to watch how admissions and deaths are going. I expect a very high death rate initially but recoveries will take 1-3 weeks to fully show up to push the death rate curve down against the totals of completed or resolved cases.