| 2/28/2020 | 62 |
| 2/29/2020 | 68 |
| 3/1/2020 | 77 |
| 3/2/2020 | 105 |
| 3/3/2020 | 118 |
| 3/4/2020 | 153 |
| 3/5/2020 | 215 |
| 3/6/2020 | 310 |
| 3/7/2020 | 401 |
| 3/8/2020 | 547 |
| 3/9/2020 | 607 |
| 3/10/2020 | 696 |
| 3/11/2020 | 1,311 |
| 3/12/2020 | 1,663 |
| 3/13/2020 | 2,081 |
| 3/14/2020 | 2,951 |
| 3/15/2020 | 3,680 |
| 3/16/2020 | 4,706 |
| 3/17/2020 | 6,509 |
| 3/18/2020 | 9,417 |
| 3/19/2020 | 14,322 |
| 3/20/2020 | 19,106 |
This represents exactly a 31.3751552002317% daily increase.
At this daily rate, the number of confirmed cases will double every 2.55 days.
However, today is not over. So any additional cases today will lower the that doubling number a bit. So you see, we're really in agreement, within a minor margin of error.
Question.
Is there an error in your logic because of the lack of testing? Isn’t the increase in numbers a direct result in the increase in testing verifying what is in the population? In other words, could the doubling you are seeing have already happened?
I thought the experts are saying we need to see the results later next week to see the actual rate of doubling.
I just realized that my protections were based on older data. Here’s the updated future data...
date....# cases....dbl on....days to double....double projection
21-Jan.....1....24-Jan....3
24-Jan.....2....26-Jan....2
25-Jan.....3....30-Jan....4
26-Jan.....5....02-Feb....7
30-Jan.....6....05-Feb....6
31-Jan.....7....20-Feb....21
01-Feb.....8....27-Feb....26
02-Feb....11....29-Feb....27
05-Feb....12....29-Feb....24
20-Feb....14....01-Mar....9
27-Feb....15....01-Mar....3
28-Feb....19....01-Mar....2
29-Feb....24....02-Mar....2
01-Mar....42....03-Mar....2
02-Mar....57....04-Mar....2
03-Mar....85....05-Mar....2
04-Mar...111....06-Mar....2
05-Mar...176....07-Mar....2
06-Mar...252....08-Mar....2
07-Mar...351....09-Mar....2
08-Mar...475....10-Mar....2
09-Mar...702....11-Mar....2.1
10-Mar...976....12-Mar....2.5
11-Mar..1308....14-Mar....2.8
12-Mar..1679....15-Mar....2.8
13-Mar..2247....16-Mar....2.6
14-Mar..2943....16-Mar....2.5
15-Mar..3680....16-Mar....2.2
16-Mar..4663....18-Mar....2
17-Mar..6411....19-Mar....2
18-Mar..9259....______...._
19-Mar..13789...______...._
20-Mar.._____...______...._....18,518
21-Mar.._____...______...._....27,000
22-Mar.._____...______...._....37,000
23-Mar.._____...______...._....54,000
24-Mar.._____...______...._....74,000
25-Mar.._____...______...._....108,000 <—20% >China yikes
...my bad
Now the protections are based on last night and Thursday numbers.
But today we already have 18.121 for 20-mar, which is perfectly tracking doubling every other day.
This is why I believe will see a national lockdown this weekend, then a day or three later all flights stop.
It will be a bad image to have more cases than China, so also suspect that the criteria for testing my change to keep the optics good. Or we may see the numbers not being broadcast anymore, too hide what could be viewed as a weaked US. Loose lips and all