Posted on 03/17/2020 8:36:27 AM PDT by Mariner
Thread #18 is here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3825150/posts?page=1
I think it’s pretty obvious from the data that I can see that a closed ventilation system among multiple people multiplies the viral load immensely.
That’s why the firefighters entering the nursing home in WA state were all immediately stricken.
And also why so many people died. The high viral load built up in these situations is not survivable for most people, young or old.
In China there is no heat in winter.
The virus is sensitive to heat.
“Forced hot air” systems put the virus under a lot of stress.
Fresh air is good.
But giving the evirus what it likes isn’t.
I wonder if we the people will ever get the truth of where this originated and how it has frightened the governments of the world so astonishingly?
I recall reading somewhere (probably here) last year or before that sceintists had exhumed bodies of persons who died int he Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919-20, and had retrieved the dna of that virus. Makes one wonder ...
The measures you call draconian are actually quite moderate if you go back in US history, and are proportionally incremental based on what the government sees ahead.
Don’t want total lockdown? Great! Then social distance now instead to break the infection cycle.
We can argue all anyone wants about the true origins of this AFTER we stop it. Until then you’re wasting time and energy for nothing. I’ll bet Trump knows a lot more than we do.
NEJM correspondence - Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973#.XnGGKWVPq0Q.twitter
YES!
Now, get back inside and stay, for 14 more days, please.
:-)
I’m not sure that heat or cool has much difference.
The biggest factor is if the air is recirculated in a closed system among a lot of people who have the virus.
The viral load will continue to grow with every circulation.
Fresh air is the antidote.
I know I’m going to end up unable to source studies on the effect of heat on the virus to prove my point.
So what, plenty of evidence heat hurts it.
‘Fresh air is better than a closed system. But heat is better than no heat.;
It’s possible there are 100 million undiagnosed cases, but most of those would be in China where half or more are probably not known to anyone, even those who have it, because they lack symptoms.
They obviously know something, about this, for ALL of these restaurants, all across the country, to be closing.
Most grocery stores are now closing at night, restocking, cleaning (we hope!) and opening an hour early, for seniors.
Don't try arguing with the flu bros. They'll figure it out in 3 to four weeks.
The number of confirmed cases has risen by an average of 31% each day since February 28, and by an average of 578% per week. In just the last 7 days, the number of confirmed cases in the US has increased by 834%.
If this rate of growth continues, then just 4 weeks from today there will be almost 15,000,000 confirmed cases, with an increase of over 2,000,000 from the day before. If they don't get it then, then they never will.
It's the eighth wonder of the world, compounded interest, applied to the Coronavirus.
Of course, if the social distancing being done now is effective, then these numbers will be WAY lower. And they'll claim "See! It was all overblown."
Again, I don’t think heating or cooling has an effect in these circumstances.
Didn’t most of the cruise ships have air conditioning turned on? Didn’t most of the nursing homes have heating turned on?
It is my view that the continued circulation of infected air at whatever temperature will increase the viral load to lethal proportions in any closed system.
Lots of studies that show heat is bad for the covid. Not necessarily appropriate though.
Yeah fresh air is a good thing too.
These things normally/naturally mutate gradually or incrementally. We are in unchartered territory this time, magnitudes beyond mutation creep.
The American public deserves to know the truth.
I’ve written to POTUS and expressed my support, going so far as to testify that I would crawl over stacked feet of broken glass, for miles on end if necessary, all the while being sprayed down with napalm, in order to vote him in- for a second term.
I’m not digging the way this nationwide quarantine situation is unfolding, and I’m not alone.
IMHO, China has, in effect, committed an act of war against the USA, if what I am hypothesizing is true.
Thanks to the Chamber of Commerce, and the Uniparty, we are totally compromised and dependent on the communist Chinese for just about every household item that we use. Further, manufacturing dependence can be found in almost every single transportation mode used in the USA.
I realize POTUS is negotiating a mine field as he uncouples the USA from the red dragon. Any reckoning with China will have to be done when we are, as a country, in a far superior position, and an uncoupling is not going to happen overnight, so I get that our reaction has to be astutely managed and timed to perfection.
s
“Yes, he was irresponsible for attending the conference but the bigger question is why it wasn’t cancelled.”
Maybe they had hand sanitizer. (/sarc)
It is also my view that the spreading of the viral load in a closed system will cover every surface inside the structure with virions.
I think the Chinese folks figured this out and that is why we saw them spraying everything inside and out before they cut off their videos.
The rumored 48hr shelter in place edicts i’ve heard of sound more terrorist related than virus related.
What’s disturbing to me is this. China is hiring charter airlines to fly their students back home to china where it’s safer to get away from the virus infested USA. Sound MORE to me like flying them back home before the start of something more dramatic than finger pointing over one of their bioweapons that got loose...
And we have known about the potential for testicle damage for nearly 2 months now. One of the tissues that contains (for all races) a lot of expressed ACE2 is testicles. ACE2 is how coronaviruses bind to their targets.
THIS might explain why the chicoms went batshit crazy (pun intended) when this virus broke out. Maybe it was a sterility virus they’d planned to release on someone ELSE.
First of all, I want to be clear that my numbers are projections, not predictions. All I'm doing is the basic math to see what the numbers would be if the virus continues to spread at the same rate it has been spreading for the past 3 weeks, or so. I'm not claiming it will. There are lots of reasons it might not, the most important of which is social distancing, which works. The purpose of the projection was to make the point that the time to act is now, while the numbers are still small. The Flu Bros are thinking linearly, but the spread is exponential.
I'm not an epidemiologist, but I did study epidemiology, preventive medicine, and statistics at the graduate level at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. I also have a Master's Degree in Medical Informatics from Northwestern University. I have worked with medical and epidemiological data for over 30 years.
My work experience with epidemiological data has always been after the fact, not with an active epidemic, and has been mostly centered around trauma care. So no, I haven't seen this before, but I'm not the best person to answer that question.
There will come a point where the virus has difficulty finding new victims, and the projections will no longer apply. But I believe that is well after the 12,000,000 case mark. However, your point is well taken that wider testing will artificially increase the rate of spread, as I have calculated it. But that just points out the fact that it is already far more widespread than the official confirmed case numbers indicate.
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