““followed by “oh s^%$””
It’s going to get easier though. Say we are 6 weeks down the road from now. 20% of population has had it and resolved. Cases are declining due to social distancing measures. The health system is holding up.
Area by area, they can ease or tighten restrictions, or go to a full on movement stop, based on trying to maintain an acceptable level of infections.
It will be a strange time. Restaurants are open, then they are closed for two weeks (those businesses, and many others, will have a hard time adjusting) Schools are open for a time, then closed for two weeks, then opened again.
More and more as the percentage of population that’s had it resolves, restrictions will become less necessary. Those who have had it and cleared can be given a “green light” status, i.e. they can move about at any time. You might even see jobs become available just for those people with resolved cases.
Buster:
Try running some numbers through your scenario...
Just pick a state, any state...
You will not like what you see...
The numbers are so large compared to critical care beds that even if heroic intervention creates ten times as many beds and equipment, and somehow finds the staff to man them, the large numbers still overwhelm the system.
The newest video here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
runs some simulations...
Basically you can get a fairly flat curve by allowing one eighth of the interpersonal contact to take place. (That is pretty severe, probably the closing of all but critical functions, including all air travel anywhere.)
Unfortunately, because of the numbers we are dealing with, that flat curve would have to last _years_ to avoid overwhelming the health care system.
You can run your own numbers, and see what you think.
Basics: 60% of population infected eventually.
15% of them require hospitalization.
No restrictions = doubling every three days
7/8 restrictions = flatlining (not reduction, just
flatlining)
“It’s going to get easier though. Say we are 6 weeks down the road from now. 20% of population has had it and resolved. Cases are declining due to social distancing measures. The health system is holding up.
Area by area, they can ease or tighten restrictions, or go to a full on movement stop, based on trying to maintain an acceptable level of infections.
It will be a strange time. Restaurants are open, then they are closed for two weeks (those businesses, and many others, will have a hard time adjusting) Schools are open for a time, then closed for two weeks, then opened again.
More and more as the percentage of population that’s had it resolves, restrictions will become less necessary. Those who have had it and cleared can be given a “green light” status, i.e. they can move about at any time. You might even see jobs become available just for those people with resolved cases.”
That’s a really good summary, and seems to synch up with the fun in Wuhan. I doubt our ‘wizards’ on Wall Street have worked through this (at all), so I do expect a bit more downside from them...but there ‘might’ be a light at the end of the tunnel, even if takes a long time to reach it.