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Buster:

Try running some numbers through your scenario...

Just pick a state, any state...

You will not like what you see...

The numbers are so large compared to critical care beds that even if heroic intervention creates ten times as many beds and equipment, and somehow finds the staff to man them, the large numbers still overwhelm the system.

The newest video here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

runs some simulations...

Basically you can get a fairly flat curve by allowing one eighth of the interpersonal contact to take place. (That is pretty severe, probably the closing of all but critical functions, including all air travel anywhere.)

Unfortunately, because of the numbers we are dealing with, that flat curve would have to last _years_ to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

You can run your own numbers, and see what you think.

Basics: 60% of population infected eventually.
15% of them require hospitalization.
No restrictions = doubling every three days
7/8 restrictions = flatlining (not reduction, just
flatlining)

“The numbers are so large compared to critical care beds that even if heroic intervention creates ten times as many beds and equipment, and somehow finds the staff to man them, the large numbers still overwhelm the system.”

I get it, they have to have some range of beyond capacity but beneath complete collapse that they are going to struggle to hit. It’s easy to relax and have the infections go up, but there has got to be a point of now return you absolutely do not want to go past.

I see what they are doing now and it makes sense. It also makes sense why they didn’t tell us up front what we were going to be dealing with, a series of localized and regionalized shutterings and openings over a period of several months.

They will get better at it, too, as they analyze the data on infections spread and how various restrictions affect them.

The 1918 Spanish Flu only infected 30-35% of the world's population overall - 500 million of the 1400 million in the world at the time, and 50 million died of it (10% of those infected). 1/3 of the US population contracted it and 2% of those died.

All over a period of about a year, in multiple "waves", before the thing mutated to something much less dangerous.

This 2019 Chinese Virus seems to be about as infectious as the 1918 Flu but only half as lethal, given that about half those infected don't show symptoms and don't realize they are sick.

I very much doubt the high-end estimates of the proportion of the population who will catch it (the ones of 60% plus). My experience is that such worse case events rarely happen in reality. 30% - 50% infected is more likely, and closer to 30% IMO.

Even then it will take multiple waves over a period of a year or two to infect the maximum number of people. Some American cities suffered 5-6 "pulses" of the 1918 Flu.