That's the idea behind flattening the curve.
That may be true, but in practice the 'flattening the curve' mantra is being used to bash the 'it's just the flu, bro' crowd with histrionics. As I said, there is plenty of ignorance and hysteria from that crowd, but the 'it's exponential, bro' lecturers tend to get a pass.
But as I said, it ultimately comes down to being a cost/benefit analysis. Even if people come to realize it's a logistic function - and not flat line or exponential function - and that we'll hit an inflection point, the fact remains that Ripley's approach...
...certainly will flatten the curve. It'll also flatten the economy.
When I went to my local grocery store, a new an pattern to the sold out items emerged: chicken nuggets, fries, and pizzas. Why? Because all the kidz will be home with Mom and Dad, and they usually were fed at skool.
Now, a 'fact-based' social distancing policy would suggest that the youngest amongst us aren't the most susceptible to Coronavirus. Maybe, just maybe, emptying the schools and colleges isn't necessary.
Mind you, I'm not arguing that such a policy isn't riskless or 100% thoughtful: young children are walking germ-factories that leak snot and all that good stuff (btw...I have little DoodleBobs and so I speak from a position of love and experience), and I can guarantee that some children would likely die from Coronavirus if we kept the schools open. But that policy WOULD solve other problems, and cause other problems, and so on.
The Marketplace of Ideas is one of the greatest gifts we have in America. It has given us untold innovation, peace and prosperity. Maybe there IS a third way. But I fear, we're not listening but shouting...and in the end, Ripley has won.
I'm reposting this often, because I believe Wayne Allen Root put it best:
I have many great friends and guests on my national TV and radio shows who are medical experts. Half believe this is the pandemic to end all pandemics. They quote Centers for Disease Control and Prevention models that report as many as 1.7 million Americans could die. So people are rightfully scared out of their minds. American business is shutting down. But the other half of my medical friends and expert guests say this is an overreaction. They predict fewer Americans will die than during the flu season of 2017-18 that killed about 80,000 people. They don't believe we need to close down American business and lock ourselves in our homes. The problem is we won't know who's right until it's over.
If we take the advice of the "it's exponential, bro" types then we run the risk of vaporizing the economy but we won't look like Italy; many frayed nerves will be soothed, but many people may also end their lives due to economic stress. If we take the advice of the "it's just the flu, bro" types then we run the risk of looking like Italy if they're wrong but we save the economy and we have fewer suicides.
I never like dilemmas; both options suck - I want a Door Number 3.
However, since we've clearly chosen Door Number 1, we need to prepare for economic devastation and suicide but at least the virus will be snuffed (we hope).
I will pray today, more than usual, because it's in God's hands now...and I apologize for not treating my brother FReeper with dignity (even when they annoy the crap out of me, but I'm sure I do the same to them): the enemy is the virus, not each other. Agnus Dei, qui tollis peccata mundi, miserere nobis. Agnus Dei, qui tollis peccata mundi, miserere nobis. Agnus Dei, qui tollis peccata mundi, dona nobis pacem.