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To: Travis McGee

“Please get back to me in one month.”
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So what is your prediction for the number of dead Americans who will have died of this current Coronavirus by one month from today? And your prediction of the number of dead Americans who will have succumbed to Coronavirus for the entire calendar year of 2020?

I’m trying to understand the genesis of your “let’s trigger hysteria over the Coronavirus” jihad.


257 posted on 03/14/2020 6:55:54 PM PDT by House Atreides (Boycott the NFL 100% — PERMANENTLY)
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To: House Atreides

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277 posted on 03/14/2020 8:01:42 PM PDT by amorphous
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To: House Atreides; Travis McGee
So what is your prediction for the number of dead Americans who will have died of this current Coronavirus by one month from today?

It's complicated with many unknowns. How many die will also depend on actions taken. Below are charts that may give a somewhat better understanding of what the US and world face. These are actual numbers of cases and deaths:

US


Now imagine adding 30 more days to the right of the last date on the timeline while projecting the ever rising numbers exponentially! You will then have a fair grasp of the possible numbers in 30 days time.

Here is a projection of world cases:

World



The dotted line is the theoretical line, while the plain line is the real case line.
The mathematical formula: "2.3514*exp(0.169*X)"

Source: https://corona-virus-chart.co/

290 posted on 03/14/2020 9:10:39 PM PDT by amorphous
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To: House Atreides; Travis McGee

House Atreides wrote: “I’m trying to understand the genesis of your ‘let’s trigger hysteria over the Coronavirus’ jihad.”

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3824207/posts
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
New York Times ^ | March 13, 2020 | Sheri Fink
Posted on 03/13/2020 7:15:22 AM PDT by daniel1212

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month... Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


317 posted on 03/14/2020 11:12:09 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: House Atreides; Travis McGee
In one month from the 15th of March - i.e. by the 15th of April 2020? I'm going to guess it will be 2,000 people dead. The virus is already in the USA, there are already people dying (mostly the really elderly) and the USA has 300+ million people -- a death rate of even 0.0061% will still be IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO (perhaps Im being optimistic) 18,300 dead by the time it washes over. Taking stern measures can reduce that to 2,000 or 3,000 - but that's going to be the minimum number.

NOTE: I am not an epidemologist so I hope, I pray that I am wrong and the numbers are lower

399 posted on 03/15/2020 11:12:28 PM PDT by Cronos (Re-elect President Trump 2020!)
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