Regards this:
>>Let us say you have 100 employees who are critical.
>>
>>We know from international statistics that 60 of them can >>be infected (even with full spread in the facility).
>>
>>Of those 60 only 9 will be sick enough to require >>hospitalization and have to be moved from the premises.
>>
>>Of them 1 or 2 will die.
If 30 of those 60 get into a 14-day quarantine for a COVID-19 exposure. They are lost for continuity of operations for that period.
Some of the 30 exposed will get it and be lost for a month. Call it 10 people. About 5% will die and be lost forever. Call it one person for round numbers and older demographics sake.
Some number of the exposed and quarantined, 20 in this example, will come back to work and pop sick some time after the 14 day quarantine because we need a 30 day quarantine to cover the tail end slow case developers. Call it one person in this example.
So some number of that 20 returned to work and those at work go back into quarantine. Likely a longer one, call it 21 days this time.
We are at 30 critical people at day 14, jumped to 50 at day 14, and now drop 30 more because of the slow case when he pops between day 14 and day 30.
So call day 18 as “delay pop day.” The critical staff is now at 20 from a start number of 60 at day 18. You have to make them work double shifts until the day 30, minimum, when you get back your 10 recovered bodies.
Odds are that some time in those double shift work days one of that 20 will catch COVID 19 before your ten recovered return and it will approach certainty before the uninfected from the 30 on a 21 day quarantine come back.
This will get plant shut down and rolling power brown outs and black outs.
You don’t take workers off the plant floor unless they are critically ill.
Italy is going through this right now with medical staff.
You work unless you are so sick you can’t work.
They assume everyone is infected, so no point in testing anyone.
Gas is cheap, maybe good time to stockpile gen set fuel?
I’m have always assumed that military would step in at that point...
I disagree with your numbers.
Let’s say, closed environment, various ages, 100 exposed, 9% down for the count, leaving 91. The 91 are going to be two groups - the not-sick who aren’t going to get sick, and the ‘cold’ level sick.
The 91 will all remain working because
a) nobody is going to get sicker, statistically;
b) they are in a closed environment and the 91 aren’t going to be going home for a while - they will be sequestered in place per HS and NRC regs. Nobody in-nobody out;
and c) in the event the statistics are blown, the contingency plans of the managing companies already include having crosstrained employees that can be brought in from sister plants. Force on Force exercises are held every 3 years and train exactly for this scenario.