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I disagree with your numbers.

Let’s say, closed environment, various ages, 100 exposed, 9% down for the count, leaving 91. The 91 are going to be two groups - the not-sick who aren’t going to get sick, and the ‘cold’ level sick.

The 91 will all remain working because
a) nobody is going to get sicker, statistically;
b) they are in a closed environment and the 91 aren’t going to be going home for a while - they will be sequestered in place per HS and NRC regs. Nobody in-nobody out;
and c) in the event the statistics are blown, the contingency plans of the managing companies already include having crosstrained employees that can be brought in from sister plants. Force on Force exercises are held every 3 years and train exactly for this scenario.

Regards this:

>>I disagree with your numbers.

Feel free to do so.

>>Let’s say, closed environment, various ages, 100 exposed,
>>9% down for the count, leaving 91. The 91 are going to be
>>two groups - the not-sick who aren’t going to get sick,
>>and the ‘cold’ level sick.

It does not work that way.

People pop sick after a SARS-Cov2 exposure between three and 30 days later.

Some 44% have long pre-symptomatic infectious period and 1.2% to 1.5% are asymptomatic super spreaders.

Given nine people sick, with four having long no symptom periods in a no-PPE and no-testing environment with 91 people sealed in with nine sick ones. All sharing the same public rest rooms that aerosolizing the fecal matter of the sick with every flush for up to 30 days. And some number of the sick spreading the SARS-Cov2 virus by aerosol before visible symptoms.

The average R(0) for each of the nine initial infected will be on the order of seven before they show visible symptoms and get removed.

Seven time nine is 63.

So you are really looking at 9 + 63 = 72 infected of 100 at that sealed in power plant of yours inside of 30 days.

Half of that 72 sick will fall in the last 5-to-7 days of the 30.