“if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested.” How do we know they are infected with COVID if they are not tested?”
—Yeah that does kinda fall back in on itself - the best I can think of is 100,000 feeling ill who want to be tested.
“How do we know 20% of COVID infectees require hospitalization? That 5% require ICU?”
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That has been the experience so far, those are the averages.
“Some medical official in Ohio, I don;t know her name, claims 100,000 people in Ohio are presently infected. She gets that on some sort of guessing on community spread characteristics and the way the herd has been behaving. Not speaking to the truth of her figure, it’s 1% of the population of the state, just pointing out there is much we don’t know, and are making policy based on speculation.”
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Not speaking to those numbers, but most of our lives are shaped by speculation. How many eggs to get for next week, how much car/house repair might cost. I used to do inventory and write up purchase orders based on speculation of how much of this & that would be needed in x amount of time.
It’s not perfect, but it’s really the only tool we have when it comes to trying to figure out future needs.
There is no way to know 20% of COVID infectees require hospitalization until we know the number of infectees. The figure you are using is a fraction of people with serious enough symptoms to go to the doctor - and no doubt some of those people go to the doctor on minor symptoms.
-- but most of our lives are shaped by speculation. How many eggs to get for next week --
Or when to buy toilet paper. All those decisions are based on experience. We have a fair handle on repeat/predicablt events. What is the household rate of egg consumption? Milk? How much gasoline do you consume in a month? How far is your commute and how many days a year do you go to work? Sure, there is some uncertaintly there, but not much.
How much uncertainty is there in "20% of people who become infected with COVID will require hospitalization"?