Invitation to do the math for your state: COVID-19 cases as a a percent of the population

03/12/20 | daniel1212

[WVNan]

You have no idea......LOL!!

[Drago]

Tested/reported cases does not equal actual cases...”community spread” has been happening for 2 weeks now. USA has not been doing widespread testing so the “in-the-wild” number of cases is unknown. Did you see this thread?:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3824053/posts

[goodnesswins]

I’m with you both...since no corona virus in under50s...I say all 50+ and immune compromised...shd do their best to self quarantine. ..and let the youngsters go about their lives

[ZOOKER]

I'm trying to think which epidemic I heard about in Sierra Leone, years ago.

Must have been ebola, I guess.

Anyway they ran it through a computer model - so many infected, each infected person spreads it to X number of contacts, Y number of deaths per illness, etc.

In six weeks the number of deaths exceeded the total population of the country! That's when I knew their computer models were bogus.

Don't trust computer models, they are easily manipulated to cause false optimism, or chaos and panic...

[daniel1212]

You can’t talk rationally with hysterical people, can’t be done. Give it a couple of weeks, when they and their loved ones realize they are still alive they will listen then.

What panic?: Disneyland and Disney World close due to outbreak.

March Madness and NCAA Tournaments cancelled. XFL suspends 2020 inaugural season. WWE moving SmackDown and will hold it without live audience KAWS, COMPANION (EXPANDED) in Taipei, 2020, augmented reality. NBA Hiatus Is at Least 30 Days. MLB Delays Start of Season Spring training games canceled; Opening Day delayed at least two weeks. NFL Teams Suspending Travel (all from CNN).

[daniel1212]

Off by a factor of ten or so according to yesterdays UK briefing.

UK on the US?

[zek157]

How would you calculate cases without doing tests? We are doing almost zero testing at this point.

Anyway, Assume most cases are not severe and require zero treatment. Unless there’s underlying issues such as obesity, heart disease or elderly. Nothing like that in Murcia.

Real issue is supply chains originating in China. What will Halloween be without plastic trash from China?

[JoSixChip]

What panic?: Disneyland and Disney World close due to outbreak.

Less then 5000 world wide have died in over 2 months, and the vast majority of those were on deaths doorway to begin with. To shut down the economy for that is totally unjustified panic.

[Fledermaus]

Yep. 4 out of every 1 million have “contacted” it.
That’s 12.7 deaths per 100 million.

So PANIC!!!!

Cancel everything.

[Fledermaus]

Bullshit. It’s not going to increase much.

[daniel1212]

I'm convinced of the seriousness of this virus which is why I bought sanitzer and TP many weeks ago....but I also believe its been severely overblown...

The death rate is since it mostly applies to seniors (and Italy has almost the oldest average pop. age), but as for catching it:

Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air 3/12/2020, 12:09:21 AM · by Mariner · 201 replies The Hill ^ | March 11th, 2020 | By John Bowden Federally funded tests conducted by scientists from several major institutions indicated that the novel form of coronavirus behind a worldwide outbreak can survive in the air for several hours. A study awaiting peer review from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) posted online Wednesday indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air "up to 3 hours post aerosolization," while remaining alive on plastic and other surfaces for up to three days.

[PROCON]

Give it a couple of weeks, when they and their loved ones realize they are still alive they will listen then.

On the positive side, they'll have all the toilet paper they'll ever need for the next 10 years.

[zek157]

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-tested-only-77-people-this-week-coronavirus-testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html

77 tested by CDC this week isn’t relevant.

[daniel1212]

driving you crazy is it?

I think cancelling schools and major outdoor events is what is overreaction.

[daniel1212]

I find when the percentages are really small it’s hard for most people to comprehend what that small number means. Much easier to analyse the results if you view on an infected person per per the population. For us here in Texas that would be 1:1360756 So, not many. When it gets to be 1:1000 then there is a big problem. Let’s see how it goes from here.

Thanks, but why is 1:1000 a big problem? What is the mortality rate in TX?

[daniel1212]

california is .000315178% 139 devided by over 39500000 people.

Thanks. That provides a far better perspective than citing the number of cases, in which case the size of the population makes the number of infections look worse than they are.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Bullshit. It’s not going to increase much.

The word “Much” is ambiguous. By how many percent on average, is what we want want to know.

In the USA, Confirmed cases have doubled in the last 2 days

From 472 cases on 9 March to 987 cases on 11 March to 1,716 as of this writing ( March 12 ).

See here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Is that “Much”? or is that a teenie weenie growth by your lights?

[daniel1212]

Tell me again how many people in the US have actually been tested to see if they have the Corona virus. I seem to have missed the number in your post above...

That is something I did not see, but the number is very small. As is the case with many diseases.

[wareagle7295]

OK, so at what point do we start seeing people getting sick en masse?

Last week, people told me that in 8 days we were going to be like Italy...and 8 days later the only way we are like Italy is that everything is closed down.

Shouldn’t Doc in the Boxes be filling up?

[daniel1212]

Thanks but I prefer to look at data that is put out by people who do that for a living. Pick one: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/maps-visuals

I did and this one seems to show about the same # of cases as the CNN source: https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/ . But which one shows the # of cases as a % of the population?