Your metrics on cases is fine. It’s your linear projection that’s not.
In the next few days your numbers will rise so fast that your projections will have every person alive being infected. And then some.
The pace you are using is as if you took today’s stock market gain and applied those returns for the next thirty years.
Until there have been massive testing in the US, any projected growth rate using simple math will be flawed.
We went through this all in China. Until we recognized a solid pattern. That pattern was caused by the limiting factors of the testing kits.
Not saying not to keep tracking. Just be careful with the doom projections. There is enough of that already.
MA
Total confirmed and presumptive cases: 92
Presumptive: 91
Confirmed: 1
Total deaths: 0
Cases in Middlesex County: 41
Cases in Norfolk County: 22
Cases in Suffolk County: 20
Cases in Berkshire County: 7
Cases in Essex County: 1
Cases in Worcester County: 1
https://www.wgbh.org/news/term/updates-on-coronavirus
The projecting has held true for the numbers before I began looking at them and for the six days I’ve been tracking, prior to posting here
But, you’re right looking forward looks bad. Very bad. NOBODY likes the possibility of what it portends, including me.
I will post the numbers and let’s see if the doubling trend continues. If so, the current rate predicts 8,000 around St. Patrick’s Day, next Tuesday.
The number of confirmed cases rate of doubling could change.
For instance...
...The number of producable kits may not match the number required to be tested
...The number of personnel to administer the tests may decrease
...The government might see the rate and, like China did five times to rig the results, modify auto qualifies to be tested. This would be a effort to artificially report less possible than exists, for optics/propaganda
...the virus may mutate, rendering current tests inaccurate (not did if that can happen, but throwing it out there)
There will come a point where any numbers the CDC gives will not be believed.