“Why do you think the data from China inflates the mortality rate?”
I do think the death rate is higher in Wuhan maybe 50K to 100K. They never had control of the virus before it infected everybody in Wuhan. The lock down is the only thing that save the China That is why I discount China data, they can not be trusted.
I am looking at the fact they tested over 150000 people for the virus. My numbers were base off the number of confirm cases and death count. That will change but at the time of the writing, it calculated to 0.7% not the 3.5% WHO is stated. Yes the unresolved cases could turn to a death, but they could find more people who test positive.
I do not see it jumping to the 3.5% that WHO stated. South Korea has a good heath care system and a good hand on the issue.
I have live Korea before, and talk to some friends who have just return from Korea. South Korea has advance in the last 10 years, but they are not there yet. They still have open sewer systems and old-style squatty potties. The virus is transmitted via Feca material. The public squatty potties are not very clean, much like the ones I experience in the Middle East (maybe the reason of the crazy outbreak in Iran).
The US is spread out compare to South Korea. A lot of the Koreans live in dense areas with apartment blocks. They do have single family house dotted in the countryside but that is mostly small farm areas. The densely populated cites will cause the spread to be quicker compare to the US. We do have high populated cities, but they are little bit cleaner. The places we need to worry about is the homeless population on the west coast. Those areas remind me of third world countries.
It is dangerous to anybody with heath issues no matter what age they are. There are some Elderly people with no issues that it will not be affected. The stronger you immune system is the less if affects you.
“I am looking at the fact they tested over 150000 people for the virus. My numbers were base off the number of confirm cases and death count. That will change but at the time of the writing, it calculated to 0.7% not the 3.5% WHO is stated. Yes the unresolved cases could turn to a death, but they could find more people who test positive.”
But some of those new cases will likely die as well. We can only base rates on known cases. I don’t think we hit 3.4% unless the health care system collapses somewhere and I think we’re on top of it in the US well enough to pile on resources where needed. The WHO number is including the Chinese stats which the WHO must include for political reasons. I also expect that very few countries will handle it as well as S. Korea. We might be one of them.
I just don’t see the argument that the US will have a significantly better survival rate. As long as neither country’s health care system collapses, the outcomes should be very similar.
However, things don’t look so good in Italy. Lombardy is saturated and on the verge of collapse. If Italy does not pour resources into it the death rate could skyrocket. It’s pretty grim already, 5% of identified cases and 37% of all resolved cases are deaths for Italy as a whole. The final number is going to be somewhere in between and that certainly is worse than 3.4%. Even finding more cases to dilute those stats is still bad news.
So we still have a long way to go.