“I am looking at the fact they tested over 150000 people for the virus. My numbers were base off the number of confirm cases and death count. That will change but at the time of the writing, it calculated to 0.7% not the 3.5% WHO is stated. Yes the unresolved cases could turn to a death, but they could find more people who test positive.”
But some of those new cases will likely die as well. We can only base rates on known cases. I don’t think we hit 3.4% unless the health care system collapses somewhere and I think we’re on top of it in the US well enough to pile on resources where needed. The WHO number is including the Chinese stats which the WHO must include for political reasons. I also expect that very few countries will handle it as well as S. Korea. We might be one of them.
I just don’t see the argument that the US will have a significantly better survival rate. As long as neither country’s health care system collapses, the outcomes should be very similar.
However, things don’t look so good in Italy. Lombardy is saturated and on the verge of collapse. If Italy does not pour resources into it the death rate could skyrocket. It’s pretty grim already, 5% of identified cases and 37% of all resolved cases are deaths for Italy as a whole. The final number is going to be somewhere in between and that certainly is worse than 3.4%. Even finding more cases to dilute those stats is still bad news.
So we still have a long way to go.
I am reviewing the numbers on Lombardy. I am beginning to believe my numbers are low, real low. I will see if I can talk to someone on Ham Radio this week to confirm the stuff I am reading online. The articles and twitter post are like a sci-fi movie..
The Worldometer that I just started using today is confirming your numbers.
I do think we have the same strain as Italy in the Southeast, we have a number of people infected when they visited Italy and return to the USA.
As far as our local heath system, the workers are very concern there.
Does South Korea have the same strain as Italy? I think South Korea has S and Italy has the L strain. I have not seen any articles talking about strains in either country. L was the deadly one in Wuhan.