Posted on 03/07/2020 11:33:25 AM PST by Captain Peter Blood
So why does the WHO (not me) believe the CFR is 3.4% then?
BTW, we’re apparently going to have to agree to disagree on this. Neither of us are going to change the other’s mind.
This scare epidemic occurred in 1976 with the swine flu scare. By the end of the summer everyone was lined up to get swine flu vaccinations.
It was all a big nothing, blown into a panic by the press and politicians.
There was a big backlash after only 25% of the U.S. public received the vaccine because of a supposed link to Guillain-Barré Syndrome and the fact that the supposed pandemic had gone nowhere.
Caution is fine in anticipating COVID-19 and the seasonal flu in general but insane panic from over-hyped press and political reaction is as absurd as the prepper buildup and hysteria to the Y2K predictions. The public will eventually crawl out of their caves and resume normal breathing.
My fear is that the news media induced hysteria will cause enough people to be quarantined to cause a wrench to be thrown into the gears of the world economy . That is the media's goal to cause an economic depression in an election year to defeat Trump. I hope people come to their senses and see this for what it is
South Korea has done extensive testing and a few days ago they calculated a death rate of 0.6%
“So why does the WHO (not me) believe the CFR is 3.4% then?”
The WHO is correct when they say that 3.4% of confirmed cases have died.
This is a galaxy away from saying that 3.4% of those infected will die.
You pretend they are the same thing, but they aren’t anywhere close to the same thing.
This results in your grossly misunderstanding and misapplying this WHO statistic.
Why? Because there are huge numbers of people who are infected who are not “confirmed cases”.
That means that far less than 3.4% of those who get infected will die.
The South Korean numbers illustrate this, why is their WHO death rate so much lower than the other countries?
You say it has nothing to do with them testing more people.
But it has everything to do with it.
The only way WHO counts someone as a “confirmed case” in their death rate is if they have been tested.
But who gets tested?
Look at the numbers of people who have been tested in all these countries, and you will be totally shocked at how low they are.
Clearly they are mostly testing those with advancing cases, or people who have the most clear reasons for worrying due to travels or companions.
So what does that have to do with south korea?
South Korea has drive through testing, far more people are being tested than elsewhere. The barrier to testing is much lower, it is very convenient quick and free. People with lesser symptoms and less reason to worry are getting tested.
This gives them a much bigger number for “confirmed cases” than it would be if they hadn’t expanded their testing.
Without changing their actual condition, this testing is directly affecting their WHO statistic. Their lower death rate is not a surprise if you understand how the statistic is computed, and why making testing more accessible to people who aren’t so very sick.
Far more people are infected with coronavirus than are indicated by the number of official “confirmed cases”, which means the actual death rate of those who get infected is much lower than people think.
It takes this disease over a month to resolve from infection to death or recovery.
This isn’t a hollywood virus that kills in a matter of 2 or 3 days.
The number of patients that are critical is disturbing.
So let’s give the numbers a month or two and check back then.
Yes, that seems to me to be the flaw in all the talk about this virus. We know how many people have died so far but we really have no idea how many people are infected, so there is really no way to compare it to previous pandemics.
**I was a kid during the Hong Kong Flu epidemic, 13, and I can’t recall if there was any kind of panic then. ***
Most people then were worried about the Polio epidemic.
Same for a cemetery just outside Farmington NM. I remember seeing the church, and lots of crosses in the grave yard back in 1955. Years later I learned most are from 1918.
Because they had to cover for Obamas incompetence, he waited til there were over 1000 dead before he did anything..so the media, being in Obama’s pocket, covered up for him
The WHO is not an organization I would put much stock in.
https://consumerchoicecenter.org/defund-the-world-health-organization/
https://www.dailysignal.com/2015/08/15/what-world-health-organization-did-wrong-on-ebola-response/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-who-future/
The truth is that these numbers are all suspect & the WHO has been wildly wrong in the past. This theorizing ahead of data and by making assumption on assumption is what created the global warming monster.
“With 6,767 confirmed cases as of late Friday, South Korea has more coronavirus patients than any country besides China. That high number may in part be a function of the country’s sweeping testing program that involved tens of thousands of people. When balanced against the country’s 44 deaths, the case-fatality ratio is less than 0.7%.”
“That figure may offer a better sense of COVID-19’s true fatality rate, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston and an instructor at Harvard Medical School.”
“By testing so many people, they were actually able to find more cases,” Faust said. “It means they noticed the disease was everywhere, and it doesn’t kill that many people.
“The more testing you do, the more accurate your numbers become,” he added.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-07/why-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-keeps-changing
The sky is falling. You keep acting like a fatality rate has been established. It hasn’t. We have no idea how many people think they have a cold or the flu & stay at home & recover without any intervention. The only place with massive testing SK has a much lower fatality rate because they have tested more people. Stop pretending the experts know the answers. They are winging it.
You are panicked & not thinking clearly. How do we define number infected? They have to be tested to know that they are infected. That is the whole point.
Only the very ill are in the pool unless testing is widespread and the milder cases get added to the pool.
That was the 50’s. Polio was pretty much under control by 1968.
We were talking about 1957’s Asian Flu pandemic.
The 3 victims in Maryland are recovering in their 2nd weeks.
Most viral infections only last a few days, some a bit longer but if you catch a bacterial infection (mainly pneumonia) because of it, all bets are off.
Some virus came be latent and recur like Herpes, HIV and Hepatitis.
I do agree we have to give it some time to see what is really going on. But I would bet political histrionics is influencing about at least 95% of our current news cycle.
It takes a week or ten days, possibly 14 days from infection to symptoms.
Another week or two of symptoms.
At that point you either recover or need an ICU bed.
If you need an ICU bed it’s another week or two for mortality to kick in.
There are still a whole bunch of people in SK that are in the ICU and probably won’t make it.
We’ll what final mortality is in a cpl months. Dataset is way too small.
BTW, mortality stays low while your hospitals are able to treat you with ‘best care’. Once your hospitals get overrun it turns into a crap show.
That’s happening in Italy right now. They’re quarantining 1/6 of the country for this.
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