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To: Mount Athos

So why does the WHO (not me) believe the CFR is 3.4% then?


61 posted on 03/07/2020 3:00:51 PM PST by jstolzen
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To: jstolzen

“So why does the WHO (not me) believe the CFR is 3.4% then?”

The WHO is correct when they say that 3.4% of confirmed cases have died.

This is a galaxy away from saying that 3.4% of those infected will die.

You pretend they are the same thing, but they aren’t anywhere close to the same thing.

This results in your grossly misunderstanding and misapplying this WHO statistic.

Why? Because there are huge numbers of people who are infected who are not “confirmed cases”.
That means that far less than 3.4% of those who get infected will die.

The South Korean numbers illustrate this, why is their WHO death rate so much lower than the other countries?

You say it has nothing to do with them testing more people.
But it has everything to do with it.

The only way WHO counts someone as a “confirmed case” in their death rate is if they have been tested.

But who gets tested?

Look at the numbers of people who have been tested in all these countries, and you will be totally shocked at how low they are.

Clearly they are mostly testing those with advancing cases, or people who have the most clear reasons for worrying due to travels or companions.

So what does that have to do with south korea?

South Korea has drive through testing, far more people are being tested than elsewhere. The barrier to testing is much lower, it is very convenient quick and free. People with lesser symptoms and less reason to worry are getting tested.

This gives them a much bigger number for “confirmed cases” than it would be if they hadn’t expanded their testing.

Without changing their actual condition, this testing is directly affecting their WHO statistic. Their lower death rate is not a surprise if you understand how the statistic is computed, and why making testing more accessible to people who aren’t so very sick.

Far more people are infected with coronavirus than are indicated by the number of official “confirmed cases”, which means the actual death rate of those who get infected is much lower than people think.


66 posted on 03/07/2020 3:37:44 PM PST by Mount Athos
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