If you would like more information about what's happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me.
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Posted on 02/28/2020 6:41:19 PM PST by 11th_VA
If you would like more information about what's happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me.
Please send me your name by FReepmail if you want to be on this list.
I apologize if it seems I’m fostering panic - I have no intention of doing so. Many of us here, have a ‘healthy respect’ for this virus and believe it could be a catalyst for significant change in our country.
And depending on the death rate, could be the ‘defining event’ for a generation, much like WW2 was for a previous generation.
I won’t go into all the technical details now, but this virus differs significantly from influenza - influenza attacks the Upper Respiratory track (nose, throat) the New Coronavirus attacks the lower respiratory track (Lungs), and because of that is a much deadlier virus - how deadly tbd ...
Well, I’m on three flights tonight. Just got off the first one and the next one leaves at midnight PST. I should be in ICU by morning with all the panic setting in. So far the Airport Face Mask Count stands at 7...
I remember the Hong Kong flu of 1968, that was supposed to a pretty bad strain of the flu. Social media and the internet are giving us a lot of information but at the same causing widespread panic.
Until we see some concrete numbers on this all right now is speculation.
Trust me, you want a window seat:
That is exactly my point. Enough with the scare tactics.
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
85,176 declared cases
02,919 declared deceased
39,426 declared recovered
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered = 6.89%.
That is a fluid number that is now dropping at the rate of about 0.61% per day.
However, due to the few "HOT" nations outside China right now, it appears
today's drop in mortality rate may be more like 37.5% - 42.5%.
42,345 cases have been declared resolved, and that represents 49.715%
of all declared cases to date. (resolved = deceased or recovered)
As of this post, the active cases have dropped by 1,109 cases today.
This has been taking place for nearly a week, and the drop has been growing.
It may not continue, if cases outside China mushroom. There are now 42,831
active cases. That is 15,978 cases fewer than the highest count of active
cases at 15:13 PST on 02/17/2020. That figure was 58,809.
Yesteday's recovered figure for the one day, was 3,721. Today we're on a
path to hit 2,900.
The big days of China's declared cases are now over two weeks past. Look
for one day recovered numbers to drop off until the global community's large
declared cases become ripe, and people start being declared well there.
The numbers seem to indicate that the decline of active global cases will
probably end in 3-6 days. From that point on the number of active cases will
be growing again.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
At this point only 6.95% of all declared cases exist outside Mainland China.
Three days ago, that figure was 3.62%. At the end of the day yesterday,
that figure was 5.48%.
5,915 declared cases
0,084 declared deceased
0,498 declared recovered
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is 14.43%.
That figure is grosely high, and should not be used for purposes of
extrapolation of what lies ahead. It takes several weeks for people to
be infected, and recover. As in the large body of cases above, this
mortality rate is declining, and will pick up speed at the two week mark
of our largest daily declared infections outside China.
582 cases have been declared resolved, and that represents 9.84% of the
cases declared outside of Mainland China.
There are now 5,333 active cases outside of China.
The number of declared cases has grown by 29.52% so far today or 1,348
cases.
There are now 60 nations declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Four nations or entities of the 59 nations or entities outside of China
account for over 80% of all active cases outside China at this time.
2,931 49.55% South Korea
0,803 15.83% Italy
0,705 11.92% Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
0,388 06.56% Iran
83.86% of all cases ourside of China...
This information was worked up from my database of Johns Hopkins
University numbers that they provided over the last month.
If you wish to see the basis for these findings, click on a link to the data
files I have provided on the forum.
Exactly what I think. Got flack for it too.
Interesting numbers - will be very interesting to see if we suddenly have several Wuhan’s all over the globe ...
I could be wrong, but I think school is closed for the next few days, because it’s Friday.
And depending on the death rate, could be the ‘defining event’ for a generation, much like WW2 was for a previous generation.
I won’t go into all the technical details now, but this virus differs significantly from influenza - influenza attacks the Upper Respiratory track (nose, throat) the New Coronavirus attacks the lower respiratory track (Lungs), and because of that is a much deadlier virus - how deadly tbd ...
Now we’re comparing this to WW2?
Italy has hundreds of reported cases. Today they reported 4 deaths. All very elderly. Was much the same yesterday.
This is nasty bug but at least for Italy seems to be targeting the usual suspects in danger from the flu.
But do carry on with fantastical projections if you wish. I won’t be buying what you are selling.
Sister, not wife.
People in Asia traditionally wore face masks if they were the ones that were sick. That trend started here slightly a couple years ago. CDC reccommends if you are sick you should wear a mask.
“I detest our media with every fiber of my being”
Ditto here too. I used to think trial lawyers were the worst. They are saints compared to our media.
Why don’t sharks kill journalists? Professional courtesy.
What is the difference between a dead skunk in the road and a dead journalist in the road? There are skid marks in front of the dead skunk.
Agreed...crashed economies of China and US would hurt them more than US....although Xi has the luxury of letting hundreds of thousands die.
Presumed means the person tested positive at the local health department. It does not become official until the results are verified through the CDC.
I predicted South Korea would break 10,000 cases by the 2nd or 3rd (perhaps 3rd - 4th about four or five days ago)
After looking at how the Chinese numbers grew, it appeared to be a safe bet.
Hopefully the others will be contained, but right now it looks like all but the cruise ship may be headed right where South Korea is, just a few days later.
I think the cruise ship is winding down. Hopefully.
And what if it is true? There are three stages of truth: 1) Ridicule; 2) Opposition; 3) Acceptance
Stage 2.9 is when the stores run out of toilet paper
lots of PRESUMED cases popping up ... meaning they might or might not be simple influenza, and no one will know until the CDC test results come back, which takes at least 48 hours ...
Local health departments just got the okay to test for Covid 19 yesterday. When it's presumed it means that the local test came back positive. They have it. But they have to get results from CDC before it's not presumed officially. It's a technical thing but they have it.
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