Nate Silver Says Bloomberg is Slipping in Polls After Debates: He’s in ‘A Lot of Trouble’

mediaite.com ^

[Conserv]

FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief and influential political statistician Nate Silver said presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg is in “a lot of trouble,” Wednesday, after dropping in national and state polls following his two subpar debate appearances.

“Bloomberg is in quite a lot of trouble. His national polls have stalled out or begun to reverse themselves,” Silver claimed on Twitter. “He’s fallen to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states, we aren’t seeing the leads we saw pre-NV debate; it’s a lot of stuff in the teens and low 20s.”

“Nor is there any obvious way to turn it around before Super Tuesday,” he continued, noting that Bloomberg, “isn’t competing in SC.”

“His performance in the debate last night was improved IMO but initial polling suggests that voters didn’t like it very much,” added Silver. “It’s not even clear what he wants to happen in SC. If Bernie wins, Bernie may open up a *very* formidable lead by Super Tuesday, and though Bloomberg might be 2nd (a) it’s likely to be a distant 2nd and (b) there’s much more evidence of a Bloomberg ceiling than a Bernie ceiling.”

Silver also claimed that if Biden “wins SC, the race remains more open, but Biden will have a fairly clear claim to being the best alternative to Sanders and, per our projections, would likely finish comfortably ahead of Bloomberg in ST delegates.”

“So Bloomberg might be in a fairly distant 3rd place,” Silver concluded.

FiveThirtyEight’s Democratic Primary forecast currently places Bloomberg behind Sanders and Biden, with a one in thirty chance.

A new Progress Texas/Public Policy Polling survey also shows Sanders and Biden tied at 24 percent support ahead of the Texas primary, followed by Bloomberg at 17 percent. A major finding of the poll was that even though Bloomberg jumped into the race to stop Sanders, he’s actually siphoning 7% support from Biden, and helping Sanders.

[j.havenfarm]

I see his ads on almost all YouTube videos. With his stupid mug and tiny persona, and growing general sense among even low information voters that he’s not going anywhere, I sense seriously diminishing returns on the ad blitz

[nicollo]

without that consulship, no one would ever have heard of Crassus. But because of it, every student of Roman history has heard of him. His defeat at Carrhae actually made him even more famous.

Generally, in order to promote one's political career, one wants to become famous before dying in battle, as Crassus did at Carrhae.

Crassus gained his consulship after the Third Servile War, aka, Sparticus' rebellion, which Crassus used/ bought into as praetor to elevate himself towards his consulship.

[Zhang Fei]

[Generally, in order to promote one’s political career, one wants to become famous before dying in battle, as Crassus did at Carrhae. ]

---

Consul was as high as you could get in the Roman republic, so there’s that. Given that they were elected once a year, consuls were a dime a dozen. Without Carrhae, Crassus would have been a footnote - a consul, but not a noteworthy figure, who put down one of a number of slave rebellions. But Carrhae made him immortal, even as it took both his and his son’s lives, along with most of the army* they led. Life can be funny in that way. If Varus hadn’t gotten his legions annihilated by Hermann, how well-known would he be?

* What’s curious is how his survival, or success, would have affected Caesar’s fate. Would the power struggle that followed Crassus’s death have broken out at all?

[nicollo]

Well, if you want Bloomies to go straight to Carrhae, that’s fine with me, but I was pointing out that Crassus had to buy his way into fame well before that.

[Zhang Fei]

[Well, if you want Bloomies to go straight to Carrhae, that’s fine with me, but I was pointing out that Crassus had to buy his way into fame well before that.]

---

He needs to make consul before getting to Carrhae. Let’s hope he never makes consul. Because if there’s a Carrhae, he’s gonna take us with him.

[Zathras]

Guess he wasn’t UP for the task

[one guy in new jersey]

Raises, not begs.

Question begging is a specific act, the doer of which violates the laws of logic.

“Regrettably, Mr. Smith, by saying what you’re saying, you merely beg the question, and prove nothing...”