Experts scramble, but new coronavirus vaccine might not come in time

staradvertiser.com ^ | 02/06/2020

[BenLurkin]

Just days after Chinese scientists shared the genetic map of the culprit coronavirus, researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health had engineered a possible key ingredient for a vaccine they hope to begin testing by April.

Scientists from Australia to France, along with a list of biotech and vaccine companies, jumped in the race, pursuing different types of inoculations.

Traditionally, making vaccines required first growing lots of virus in a lab. The NIH team is pursuing a newer and far faster method: Simply use a piece of the virus’ genetic code, called messenger RNA or mRNA, that instructs cells to make a particular protein. For now, health officials are isolating the sick to fight spread of the virus, which causes fever, cough and in severe cases pneumonia. With no specific treatment, some doctors also are experimenting with antiviral medicines developed for other conditions.

And Texas researchers froze an experimental vaccine developed too late to fight an earlier coronavirus — SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome — but are pushing U.S. and Chinese authorities to give it a try this time around. Because the new virus is a close cousin of SARS, it just might protect, said Dr. Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital.

All that work is coming at lightning speed compared to past outbreaks. Yet many experts agree it still may take a year — if every step along the way goes well — for any vaccine to be ready for widespread use. That’s if it’s even needed by then.

Globally, more than 28,000 people are infected and the death toll climbed past 560. The overwhelming majority are in China, but more than 200 people with the illness have been reported in over two dozen other countries.

[DrGunsforHands]

Vaccines that were in development for SARS actually made people more likely to get severe symptoms. There are some that think that this Coronavirus was a vaccine!

[familyop]

Looks like the work for a vaccine is going much faster than usual. Remember that RNA viruses mutate quickly, though. A vaccine might work about as well as a flu vaccine. I’m not being sarcastic and did get a flu shot in spite of the probable low effectiveness this season.

I suspect that a coronavirus vaccine would need to be more often revised to fight coronavirus mutations because of the severity of symptoms.

[Black Agnes]

I’ve wondered if they were going to vaccinate their own population against this and then release the virus to ‘soften up’ the other asian countries on their borders.

[montag813]

Globally, more than 28,000 people are infected and the death toll climbed past 560.

These numbers are minuscule. What a ridiculous overreaction, perhaps for profit and/or control. There are already 10,000 DEAD in the U.S. from the flu this season alone.

[familyop]

Pangolins may be intermediate hosts of novel coronavirus: researchers
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-07/Pangolins-may-be-intermediate-hosts-of-novel-coronavirus-researchers-NT2WexSNWg/index.html

[DrGunsforHands]

When the official numbers were posted in China a few days ago or so, at first it had 150,000 confirmed cases and 25,000 deaths. But then the numbers quickly changed to the lower numbers. People think these might be the Chinese government’s internal numbers that were mistakenly posted instead of the vastly lower numbers that they are reporting to the public and the rest of the world.

[ETCM]

What a ridiculous overreaction, perhaps for profit and/or control.

This isn't about how many have died within the first weeks of the outbreak. It's about the potential for a global pandemic. The mortality of 2019-nCoV is not yet fully known, but it is several orders of magnitude higher than any recent flu strain. At R₀=2+, it is also significantly more contagious. It has the potential to kill tens of millions. Sitting back and saying "the flu has killed more" until this virus surpasses it, before trying to stop a pandemic is suicidal.

Consider that Wuhan has a population of 11 million. That is about 1/30th of the USA. If you applied the fatalities in Wuhan to the population of the USA, it would be about 10,000 fatalities in the first month. At the current rate of infection, that could double every two weeks if not stopped.

I'm not saying this is a "Spanish flu" level event, but to dismiss our (minimal) current efforts as an overreaction is ridiculous. When a virus like this breaks out, you have to get in front of it, not hope for the best case, or say "meh, it's over there".

[sauropod]

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