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To: lepton
So if we assume the sick here is the number who have sought treatment, that’d be 5 million hospitalized in ICUs instead of 810k, and some 375k dead with the same portion dead to hospitalized while dismissing those hospitalized but not in ICU.

Implicit in your analysis is the quantum of coronavirus cases in the States equaling the number of influenza patients. You're also assuming a fatality rate of 7% for those so diagnosed: as of today, per the Johns Hopkins map, there are 20,704 confirmed cases and 427 so deceased, or a 2.1% fatality rate.

There are a lot of factors that go into contracting influenza vs coronavirus. For example, there are almost NO precautions we take in the US when it comes to influenza aside from extra hand washing during the flu season. That's why, in part, so many people get the flu.

If Americans adopt precautionary measures for coronavirus like not going to work, then the likelihood comes way down.

But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.

If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 21MM seeking treatment, you get 12,600 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.1% fatality rate, we get 265 dead people in America.

That'd be bad, but it's not 375k.

125 posted on 02/04/2020 10:59:05 AM PST by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

You’re also assuming a fatality rate of 7% for those so diagnosed: as of today, per the Johns Hopkins map, there are 20,704 confirmed cases and 427 so deceased, or a 2.1% fatality rate.


I assumed the same fatality rate relationship for those who sought treatment for each disease.

The 2.1% fatality rate you cite is just plain bad math. The most you can say there is that out of the 20,704 cases, only 427 are deceased *already*. That is not a diseases’ fatality rate.


128 posted on 02/04/2020 12:06:30 PM PST by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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