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It's not. As stated elsewhere, the actions of the Chinese government - sudden "transparency" and press conferences - are unprecedented. I, too, believe that is very telling. I also agree that a true pandemic could overwhelm the medical services and cause a ripple effect through supply chains. But relying on preliminary (if not speculative at this juncture) metrics like R0 which is rarely observed in the field and is usually calculated via a mathematical model, and this severely limits its usefulness, isn't helpful.

As said elsewhere, if one has a basic education and common sense, it is normal to be concerned. But concern shouldn't turn to hysteria and speculation whereby people short the market. Btw, the quarterly GDP issue is part of a broader concern about China's fundamentals. The govt DOES care about capital flight and so, yea, actually they DO care about bad economic press.

Futures markets or any market opening is strong-form efficient, but not necessarily accurate. We will see where this lands.

The market will respond tomorrow. If ever there was a front runner on fear it’s the market. I think the market is waiting for a reason to puke 10% in a couple of weeks.

I have no idea what kinds of factories are in the area. If there are any chip factories, we will see it tomorrow.

I bought some August Vix earlier last week. Not a life changing amount—just enough to have fun. I think I will be watching with a smile on my face tomorrow morning. If not....I have a couple of months to watch.

And in regards to the Ro it’s a metric that allows comparison. Yes, it’s an academic figure that is derived “after the fact”, but in terms of tracking any kind of velocity, we won’t know until this breaks out (not onsey-twosey) in a first world country.

I absolutely agree there is no need to panic here. But I did buy a big bottle of Vitamin C. I need that stuff anyway.