Coronavirus live thread 1-26

lookner ^

[Sirius Lee]

Homeless problem will be solved unfortunately.

People who live outside might have a better chance of not contracting it.

[Snowy]

That airport still appears to be active.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/wuh/departures

[DoodleBob]

You think Xi Jinping zeroed out perhaps 5% of the country’s GDP despite the infection being less lethal than the flu? That seems like a stretch.

As I've written elsewhere, China's official GDP growth rate in 4Q2019 was the lowest in 29 years. What does the Communist govt with a pro-population control/one child policy fear more - a flu strain or loss of capital flows owing to foreign concern around the fundamentals of China's economy? Wither China?

Ah, but if the narrative becomes that the economy hits the shoals because of an alleged PANDEMIC, well...that's a GREAT story - "the GDP fall wasn't due to fundamentals. Keep investing."

Now, clearly something bad is happening in China. And I'm not saying for certain that China is taking advantage of a crisis. But there is a LOT that doesn't add up. All I am recommending is that we watch the magician's other hand and not panic.

[bgill]

Who were on those other flights to SF the past few days?

[Vermont Lt]

Your theory is uneducated. Try to figure the price of your theory.

The Chinese do not give a shit about quarterly results. Your suggesting they do indicates a lack of understanding of how they view their economy.

I guess we will see tonight around 6pm when the futures open.

[LilFarmer]

Anything that is coming here that says product of China will get relegated to the back porch for a week. Does anyone know how long this lives on surfaces? I think it was 3-5 days?

[DoodleBob]

Well, of course...I may be a good driver but I have insurance (yes I know the state forces me to buy insurance but work with me).

[Justa]

I see what you’re saying. The 50 deaths may be the full-course result of the ~200 ppl infected in December. The typical flu has I think about a 3 week course from infection to recovery. So the reported deaths should significantly trail the infected number during virus spread. This will give a deceptively low death rate. In the US they use infected vs. dead rate, i.e. per-patient, not a running rate like the media.

But imo in years past this would just be flu strain “2019-7” that people would worry about until the vaccine came out the following year.

Influenza kills a lot of people every year. Some strains are more virulent than others. Same as it’s ever been.

[Vermont Lt]

What doesn’t add up?

[LilFarmer]

Just saw this article on FluTrackers. This incubation was at least 7 days in her case:

“She had traveled to Wuhan on the 13th to 15th, and traveled to Europe on the 16th to 25th. Coughing symptoms appeared on the 22nd, and the cough worsened on the 25th. She returned to Taiwan by herself, wearing a mask on the plane and filling in the “Health Declaration Card for Passengers Entering the New Coronavirus Pneumonia”, and informed the airport quarantine staff at the time of entry...”

https://www.ettoday.net/news/20200126/1633012.htm

[Vermont Lt]

I understand what you are putting out there.

But there are a couple of things that are not “normal.” The first is the Reproductive Factor (Ro). A normal flu is measured under or around a 1. This virus is double or triple that. That is significant. It doesn’t mean everyone is going to die. It means a lot of people will get sick.

The second is the reaction. As is often the case, watch what they do rather than what they say. The actions of the Chinese government are unprecedented. I believe that is very telling.

Finally, I believe people should stop thinking about this killing them. But it will overwhelm the medical services (Hospital beds are not abundant.). Lack of treatment will kill ya. And when a lot of people are sick, this “just in time” world will stop pretty quickly.

It’s not hyperbole or panic. If one has a basic education and common sense, it is normal to be concerned. One needs to keep it in context and watch it.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[BusterDog]

"China coronavirus 'spreads before symptoms show'"

"Officials announced that the sale of all wildlife in China would be banned from Sunday. The virus is thought to have originated in animals, but no cause has been officially identified.

In humans, the incubation period - during which a person has the disease, but no symptoms yet - ranges from between one and 14 days, officials believe.

Without symptoms, a person may not know they have the infection, but still be able to spread it."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523

[MarMema]

It’s only a temporary ban. Until they get this virus under control. Selfish scum. They knew after Sars that these markets were perfect breeding grounds for a pandemic.

[richardskeet]

Nice.

[MarMema]

The newest estimate from the epidemiologist group on Twitter is Ro 2.6

Measles is 14.

[Mom MD]

Yes we need to watch. One thing I would point out is our numbers on flu are in at least a partially immunized group with some natural immunity as well due to prior flu infections. It is difficult to compare but probably the best comparison we have. I remember the first year of H1N1. Not fun but not society ending calamity either. My personal guess is this will turn out to be something like that. Either way we will know soon and panic will not help.

[richardskeet]

LOL

[BusterDog]

#BREAKING: Blackclad protesters set fire at a public housing building believed to be used as quarantine camp in the face of the increasing #WuhanCoronavirus epidemic. The Hong Kong govt said in the afternoon that it’d use Fai Ming Estate for quarantine but later denied the plan. pic.twitter.com/ehgEgw7fUc— Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) January 26, 2020