Posted on 01/24/2020 5:03:00 PM PST by 11th_VA
... Reed wastes no time to get to his terrifying conclusion which is that if no change in control or transmission happens, then further outbreaks will occur in other Chinese cities, “and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate.”
As a result, in 10 days time, or by February 4, 2020, Reed‘s model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (with an prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396);
(Excerpt) Read more at finanz.dk ...
Your initial claim was that an increased transmission rate would lower the fatality rate, which is what everybody was objecting to. Also, your posts 58 and 78 appear to contradict each other, but I’ll respond to what you said in 78.
Increased transmission rate will increase BOTH the number of fatalities and the number of infected but will have NO direct effect on the mortality rate. It might however overwhelm the ability of the medical services to cope with it if the infection rate is high enough resulting in a lower treatment rate, but let’s hope that is not the case.
Given Chinas population densities and their medical capacity, this one could kill a lot of people. It’s good to be American and have access to quality care
A lot of people have that concern and if you don't like it, guess what, I don't give a flying sexual intercourse.
” It’s good to be American and have access to quality care”
If it takes hold here in any numbers, you won’t be able to access quality care.
Very true, any kind of serious pandemic will overwhelm our health care system in matter of days or weeks and will all be on our own to cope.
Stock up on Vitamins C & D, that might help.
It’s working.
Overpopulated China needs to kill off about a quarter billion. War would do it, but would damage or destroy too much infrastructure. So it’s disease.
Thank you.
d":^)
This guy seems legit:
https://twitter.com/JonRead15
At 2.5 now. I expect that number to go way, way down now with the huge quarantine.
Gonna be a lot of flakey numbers for a week.
Thanks...
Using numbers at this site, it’s now 2.92%.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Ooops.
He’s talking bout the infection rate not morbidity,
Thank you, and I appreciate the link.
I nosed around there a bit.
With the predictions about global warming by all the “experts”, for some reason I’m kind feeling less than receptive to the word of “experts” these days.
This guy may be very credible. I’ll admit to being jaded.
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