[palmer]

90k pneumonia cases is pretty mild for China from ordinary flu. We don't know the numbers from which the pneumonia cases came. From other ordinary flu? Not a big deal. From a large number of coronavirus cases? That's in between, need more data, might be serious or not. Mostly from a modest number of coronavirus? Then that's serious.

A country with China's population should have at least 180,000 extra fatalities in the winter from flu and respiratory ailments. The number for the US with our much better health care is 60,000 extra fatalities in winter, mainly from flu, back in 2006 when the US population was 300,000,000. 90k extra in a bad flu year.

[grey_whiskers]

That's 90,000 in Wuhan alone, not in all of China.

So to scale, multiply by ~110 == 10 million cases of pneumonia.

And early reports are about 16% of the coronavirus cases are in serious or critical condition; maybe 10% need intubation or respirators.

Take *that* nationwide and it'll collapse ANY health care system.

By the way, did you see the Director of the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health talking about the possibility for crash research into multiple vaccines where money is not an object? In public. Under his own name. In so many words.

https://mobile.twitter.com/T_Inglesby/status/1221435005303345158

[rodguy911]

The spokespeople doing the videos are not professional journalists and they could be talking about the coronavirus or flu I don’t know. But, the last number I saw was around 2,000 cases. No telling if that was low but could have been.Hard to tell what the real number is.