The non-reviewed article cited is pretty pessimistic.
I’m not sure what’s with this trend of publishing non-reviewed articles.
I’m no expert in epidemiological modeling, but I’d say it’s a bit too, early to have solid data to make an accurate model.
The authors of the non-reviewed article essentially acknowledge that.
The denominator is almost certainly wrong.
There will be mld and asymptomatic infections. They just haven’t been found yet, and won’t be for w while under the conditions that exist in Wuhan right now.
way too early. we don’t have any figures from a reliable source to start with
It happens in physics because the formal on-paper review business takes too long.
In this case, it's because the MDs, epidemiologists, and Public Health officials are *alarmed*.