[ifinnegan]

“100 Million infected by Feb, that is an extreme prediction. I wonder how fast the Spanish flu spread in 2018.”

I don’t know how fast it spread.

It’s not 1918 and Corona viruses aren’t influenza, so the dynamic is different.

[Grimmy]

It’s not 1918 and Corona viruses aren’t influenza, so the dynamic is different.

*******

in 1918, there wasn’t single day pan-global transportation of large numbers of people on a regular basis.

Spread that took months or years back then can happen in a single day now.

[grey_whiskers]

These are less than a day old.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220968356314042369

More

Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.

9 replies49 retweets88 likes

Reply 9 Retweet 49 Like 88

Show this thread

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding

‏

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220950012059881474

@DrEricDing

15h15 hours ago

More

14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks