Prediction 2020

various | January 2nd, 2020 | various

[SunkenCiv]

They have a lot invested, but repairing the reputation of this plane is a lost cause. Had they gone scorched Earth and fired everyone involved, the entire management of the company would have been gone -- the guy recently brought in has eliminated a couple of board heavies (Muilenberg or whatever, and before that, he and Muilie took the CFO aside and fired him) and is known for straightening out screwed up corps, but not for running them long term.

Had they tried something more proactive, such as fixing the problem before the second crash, likely that none of this would have happened. If they'd pulled the entire product after the second crash, fixed the avionics Q&D, and made sure the plane kept flying as a freighter for the time being, to establish a track record, that probably would have worked. Now they're screwed, and have screwed themselves on the 737Max. Edsel.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #20 above -- In the last week or so, a so-called analyst gave a mixed call on Tesla; the firm he's with was quasi-bullish, but maintains a target price for the stock that's over $100 lower than the stock currently is. The analyst projected that Tesla's production would come in thousands of units below the company's target. Instead, the 2019 production has beaten the company's target by 1000s.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #21 -- Samsung's 5G phone sales have exceeded the company's expectations. I suspect that's the reason for the slight pullback this morning in Apple stock.

[SunkenCiv]

Regarding #22 -- Barron's has an article out this morning about the hazards of the streaming vid biz, very interesting. Could also be part of the Apple decline, but the ecosystem gives TV+ an edge. The competition among the otherwise undifferentiated services will be a problem during this phase of the shakeout.

[SunkenCiv]

18. Boeing will pull the plug on the 737Max...

    new related topic: Boeing Uncovers Another Potential Design Flaw With the 737 Max Jets

[SunkenCiv]

Due to the time involved manually typing, I missed a little at the pinnacle today, but sold my small stake in TSLA, which has been up more than $40 today, I think it was up about $39 when my shares sold. I plan to pluck some more, perhaps as early as 3:59 PM. Oppenheimer investment bank had raised target from $385 (which is much lower than current) to $612, while topless secretaries go-go danced on the boardroom table, and Springsteen's "Born to Run" blared from the entire office. As I'd mentioned somewhere, recently, I don't like having a lot of TSLA, just a taste, because I've seen it drop $40 in one day as well.

20. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, electric vehicles will soon become much more commonly seen throughout most of the US. Tesla will be have 10 percent of US auto sales by 2024. Hidebound conspiracy nuts hardest hit!

[SunkenCiv]

This showed up on the broker website, no URL, can't turn it up with some basic searches.

Boeing CEO Immediately Under Fire -- Market Talk

Today 2:37 PM ET (Dow Jones)

14:37 ET - New Boeing CEO David Calhoun pledged in a staff memo to incorporate "outside-in perspective on what we do and how we do it", so little surprise that he's been taken at his word. A letter signed by three senators already heading his way, calling for the cancellation of the $7M bonus tied to him successfully returning the 737 MAX to service. "This payment represents a clear financial incentive for Mr. Calhoun to pressure regulators into ungrounding the 737 MAX, as well as rush the investigations and reforms needed to guarantee public safety," write Sens. Edward Markey, Richard Blumenthal and Tammy Baldwin. (doug.cameron@wsj.com; @dougcameron)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 13, 2020 14:37 ET (19:37 GMT)

Chairman David Calhoun will become the manufacturer’s new CEO on Jan. 13... Board member Lawrence Kellner will become Boeing’s non-executive chairman of the board, effective immediately.

Boeing fires CEO Dennis Muilenburg, as the company struggles with 737 Max crisis

[SunkenCiv]

Obviously the long-overdue obliteration of the Iranian master terrorist was a black swan event. Assad suddenly has some cards to play. We'll see whether he survives 2020, with the Hizzies, the IRGC, and various other Iran-backed (but supposedly Iran-opposed) terrorist groups gunning for him.

10. The Three Amigos (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) will continue to operate as a sort of triumvirat regarding Syria and to some degree Iraq. Three and a Half Amigos will continue to be used to refer to (in order) Putin, the Shiite-head, Erdogan, and the dwarf Assad.

[SunkenCiv]

21. Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS desktop product (no, really, this time for sure) and an updated iPhone SE (which may be called the iPhone 9; it'll be a good upgrade path for users of the iPhone 6 models and the 7 models), both of which will sell well; Apple will up the screen refresh rate across its iPhone line, while not giving up battery life. There has been no update for the excellent iMac Pro since 2017, expect some kind of refresh to that line in the autumn or early winter.

    ---

The iPad Pro will be getting a 5G modem in the future. According to one analyst, the iPhone 12 Pro series may be delayed until 2021, but will be getting 6GB of RAM. And Apple is preparing to launch a new MacBook, with 'Pro Mode' launching for some existing computers. This video is sponsored by Skillshare. | iPhone 12 Pro Possibly Delayed, 5G iPad Pro Coming & Pro Mode! | iupdate | January 15, 2020

---

AMD CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, confirmed the new Zen 3 CPU architecture was on track for a 2020 launch back at CES, and the Linux code base is now obviously being prepared. The new Linux patch details support for Family 19h of AMD's processor silicon, which is widely assumed to be a reference to the Zen 3 family... As such this is definitely not the Linux code base getting prepped for the Ryzen 4000 APUs that have been launched at CES, but the Ryzen 4000 CPUs being launched, likely around Computex... The Linux patch was highlighted by serial Twitter leaker, Komachi (via TechSpot), and specifies three different Family 17h devices... AMD is changing the naming scheme for its new Zen 3 architecture, reinforcing the suggestion that the new processor architecture is far more than just a speedier, more efficient, 7nm+ respin of either the Zen or Zen 2 CPU design. All of the previous Zen processors have been lumped under the Family 17h moniker, both without and within the Linux kernel, which makes the Zen 3 chips appearing under the 19h nomenclature indicative of a brand new design.

Niels Broekhuijsen for Tom's Hardware

---

The Walmart Motile Ryzen 5 (and Windows) "Performance" Laptop is a ridiculously good deal...most of the time. | Walmart's New Laptop is an INSANE Deal | Austin Evans | January 15, 2020

[SunkenCiv]

The rest of the week, for TSLA? Reminded me of that Gordo Cooper soliloquy by Dennis Quaid near the end of "The Right Stuff" -- a hurtlin' piece of machinery. I think it's still foolish to not put a toe in, but just a toe, and if it burns off some capital, put in a couple more toes, so the average toe length is shorter when it goes up again.

Telsa isn't limited by falling sales, which is mythical -- it is constrained by its manufacturing capacity. The Tesla facility in Sparks NV (cute) produces nearly half the world's batteries, and when completed, may wind up being the largest building footprint in the world (5.8 million sq ft).

So-called Business Insider has a recent op-ed, "Elon Musk's plan to build a new Tesla factory in Germany makes no sense. Here's why." It s/b "Matthew DeBord's latest Tesla op-ed makes no sense."

[SunkenCiv]

http://www.google.com/search?q=European+union+automobile+emission+requirements