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here are some random speculative thoughts on the current epstein situation. i am just jotting these down as they occur to me so if there are any big holes in reasoning, be my guest. it’s all speculative anyways, and it is late so my thinking may be a bit cloudy.

the primary epstein death cause possibilities seem to be

1. assisted suicide
2. unassisted suicide
3. insider job
4. outsider job

re 1, what i mean by assisted suicide is that epstein got help through contact with the outside. all he had to do was communicate with a trusted friend who had access to some money (eg, some of epstein’s money). that person would arrange payoffs to ensure that epstein had the means and opportunity to off himself. Note: it does not necessarily have to be through his lawyers— it could have been through guards.

re 2, epstein would not have the benefit of knowing all the fortuitious coincidences in advance. his planning would normally have had to center around a 30 minute time window. he received a window at least 3.5 hours long, but he could not known of it in advance unless maintainence had been scheduled in prior evenings. this should however come out in an investigation if it is the case. without advance planning, imho success would have been more difficult.

epstein defense lawyers apparently assisted epstein in getting off suicide watch. i think these guys are in some trouble regardless. in the best of circumstances, who would want them for defense after this?

re 3, it is interesting to speculate how much money it would cost to breach mcc. apparently it has never been done before until now (if it has been done for epstein). i would calculate this at about $3M per person (minimum) multiplied by the number of people involved. $3M = $1M cost of disappearing from everyone including the conspirators, and $2M cost of building a new life under a new identity. it’s a minimum because it does not include inconveniences such as never being able to contact one’s loved ones again. Two guards, one warden, one shrink, one video security guy, and (say) two planners/researchers adds up to 7 people minimum, so $3M * 7 = $21M. If you think in terms of a cleanup crew to get rid of all of these people at $1M per contract multiplied by 7 people, that would b another $7M, for a total of $28M minimum. Of course MCC is well known as being difficult and epstein’s former friends are very rich, so the actual amount might easily be double that.

re 4, it seems a bit improbable now that we know about the maintenance shutdown, if 1 and 2 are eliminated.

3 investigations seems a bit overkill to me, but indicative of just how badly the government recognizes this case to be. i suspect le has not been so embarrassed since jack ruby in 1963. i wonder how much money that took to hush up, in today’s dollars? i would guess probably a lot more since there were more loose ends.

if anyone immediately involved disappears or suddenly dies for any reason in the next few weeks, i think we will have our answer as to whether it was a suicide or not.

as for Maxwell, maybe she is alive but if she is, i cannot imagine that her life is worth a plug nickel now. She is next at bat, so to speak. Her best bet is to get out in front of it, and work a deal— preferably something that does not involve a fed prison. if that is the best they have to offer her, then it would be obvious to her that she might as well stay on the lam and take her chances.

i am still discounting the body switch possibility because imho that would deny epstein victims due process. if that is not illegal at least it would seem to me to be highly immoral and if anyone in the trump administration chain of command felt the same way, imho someone would blow the whistle on it.