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In 2017, roughly two-thirds of Germans said in a poll that they’d like a new Chancellor (they weren’t negative, just that a change ought to occur). The CDU Party (her party) had not put anyone out in front for four years as the likely replacement. So they got Merkel and the CDU as the biggest vote getting out of that election (it’s a mixed result because roughly 70-percent of voters voted for other parties).

Once that 2017 coalition cleared up....things were positive, and I’d say 70-percent of Germans were ‘satisfied’. It’s not like the Chancellor (no matter who it is) really fixes or resolves anything.

So presently (summer 2019), it’s an odd development over the past year. The Green Party has surged...their guy Habeck has gained a lot of attention, and the Greens are now in the 25-to-28 percent level (still number two). The partner to Merkel in this coalition (the SPD party, left-of-center)...is screwed up and has lost a lot of voter respect. I don’t think the SPD can recover, and they are marginally at 15-percent.

Merkel won’t run again. No one is sure who’d come out of the party....there’s maybe five names I’d throw into the hat but you can’t say it helps or matters.

Some suggest that because of the Greens, and downward trend of the SPD....there’s something serious to occur in 2021 (the next election) and the Greens could put together a government.

The way the rules are...Merkel could resign/retire, and if the coalition group (CDU-CSU-SPD) could agree on the replacement Chancellor....there would be no new election until 2021. If the SPD says no to the candidate from the CDU....the replacement individual would have to try to convince the alternate group (Greens, FDP) to join for this temp coalition. No way to predict this outcome.

Job-wise, I’d say that Germans would mostly say that Merkel hasn’t been a failure...not like past guy. Maybe 30-percent are negative or frustrated with her style. Maybe another 30-percent simply don’t care...she can’t help them or hurt them...would be their answer. Historians will probably say in the future that Brandt, Kohl and Schmidt were better adapted for the job (they were mayors, governors, or bureaucrats). Merkel was simply a professor brought in by Kohl to be a East German face for the CDU. Because of Kohl’s spiral ten years later...she was the only one around who wasn’t tainted and able to pick up the leadership role. She just didn’t have the tools you’d typically expect for Chancellor.