Admiral Yamamoto’s quote about beating the Americans for six months is pretty well known.
But what did he mean?
The US could suddenly turn on a tap and Soldiers and war material would pour out six months later and overwhelm the Japanese?
I don’t think so.
I think he knew that the Japanese Navy, even though victorious in almost every encounter, would be worn down within six months.
The Japanese Naval Pilots were extremely well trained, but they didn’t produce very many of them.
At that time, a lot of Naval Pilots died in day-to-day operations.
Plus, if you attack a dozen American planes with four Japanese planes, that rookie American pilot at the back of the formation just might get you while you are focused on the guys at the front of the formation.
Figure in losses to antiaircraft and bomber defensive fires, and you need to be able to produce more Pilots.
The Japanese weren’t set up for that.
The US had been quietly gearing up for war for at least a couple of years before Pearl Harbor.
The number of Aircraft Carriers on order was astounding.
In his autobiography, Saburo Sakai said that the Japanese Navy was far too strict in their training. I think he said that 98% washed out and that included some really good pilots that they could have used later in the war.
I have no idea why they didn’t just go back and get them but I suppose once you were out of the program, that was it.