The 450K wheeled transport gave the Red Army an advantage over the horse drawn Wehrmacht that it could never cope with. Without them the Red Army may never have been able to exploit their victories. Also by 1943 40% of German war production was going to air defense of the Reich. A result of the day and night bombings by Bomber Command and 8th Air Force.
In previous discussions I highlighted exactly the importance of US auto exports and allied bombing of Germany. It was very valuable for the Soviet effort but not something they couldn’t achieve without.
Any reasonable observations indicate that the Germans were done on the East Front by December 1941. That’s before bombings and before any significant lend-lease supplies arrived.
The victory wasn’t on table for the Germans anymore after about five months into campaign.
Their hope was a separate peace with Western allies and to bring the situation with USSR to a stalemate and put it on ice inflicting as much damage as possible in hope the Soviets wouldn’t follow them back into Germany. More brazen of them believed they would join forces with the West against USSR but both ideas were pipe dreams or purely wishful thinking.
The point German military of the time is heavily overrated. You heard a lot about crazy Hitler and Russian winter only because the same German officers responsible for their own defeat were allowed to write the war history for you.
The reality is that the Germans lost because they weren’t up to task. They were generally an inferior force belonging to a power which was economically and demographically too weak to support an edequate force needed to reach Nazi objectives.
The Germans were smart enough to analyze WWI and to come out with ideas what was wrong with it and how to wage a new war on a new level although it was mostly tactical level observations and not strategic. On top of that they were determined and organized which gave them an edge over the rest of Europeans who were getting ready for another WWI and on top of that were pacifists fearing the war more than they feared defeat. That’s why they were successful in the beginning. They had absolutely inferior opponents.
Objectively speaking the German military footslog and horse-drawn, most of their equipment were dated and inferior. They lacked adequate mobilization processes and enough manpower to cope with so many enemies they were making and also lacked reliable supply of energy and lacked industrial capabilities to support the war of attrition. They generally lacked the understanding of the logistics of a big war living off robbing food from local civilians like an 18th century army and they didn’t understood even the meaning of strategy which was in their thinking a mere end goal and some tactical situations to prevail to get there.
The Germans were generally overconfident and arrogant and their racist theories also didn’t allow them to win heart and minds which is essential to hold territory.
All of the above aren’t Hitler and winter. The entire idea is hogwash. If they like this idea were it Hitler who made all these generals think it is not getting cold in Russia in winter?