Posted on 11/07/2018 1:13:14 PM PST by MrChips
As most of you know, Florida yesterday passed a State Constitutional Amendment that will allow up to 1.5 million felons to vote. Only murderers and sex offenders are excluded. And there is indeed a lot of variation in the severity of the crime. Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis. Still, as most of you also know, Republicans cannot (?) win the White House without Florida. Am I exaggerating to fear that we will never win a presidential election again?
Now, after doing a little research this morning, I learned that many states now allow felons to vote, although often on more restrictive terms than in Florida’s sweepingly inclusive Amendment. I also learned that not all felons necessarily vote Democrat. Nevertheless, some 7 out of 10 do vote Democrat, at least nationally.
And so, if just half (750,000) of Florida’s newly re-enfranchised felons vote, then 70% of those (525,000) might vote Democrat. Nevertheless, it breaks partially along racial lines, and Florida has a higher percentage of non-Blacks, with White felons tending to vote Republican, and Florida’s White and Hispanic felons combined are about 57% (427,500) of the total, with Blacks at 43%, (322,500). It is also true that close to 14% of Blacks voted Republican yesterday, remarkably so against a black candidate (Gillum), and that would lower the Democrat felon vote by approximately 45,000. But, let’s also assume that at least 50,000 Whites and Hispanics also could vote Democrat. That raises the bar.
So, on crunching numbers, one finds that if half of the felons vote, some 325,000 would likely go to the Democrat. Which means just as many would vote the other way. That is a best case scenario. Obviously, I am trying to reassure myself that this Amendment is not the end of the world. Still, even if my numbers are way off, it still seems true that the Democrat felon vote might well be no more than 100,000 votes greater than the Republican felon vote when all is said and done. Your thoughts? Are my numbers too optimistic?
Can we overcome 100,000? Both governor and senate races in Florida, yesterday, saw very narrow victories by Desantis and Scott. But, considering the fact that Desantis was a poor campaigner and Scott had to overcome a Florida legend for whom every elderly person in the state had voted several times, the narrowness of their victories is not surprising. And so, yes, we can overcome 100,000 . . . I hope and pray.
the bonfire of the semi-hysterical vanities continues.
How would anybody know? They aren't supposed to vote at all!.......................
Yep. This is one stupid state. The California of the east coast...
I basically agree with, once you have done your time you should start fresh. In this case after watching some of the ads supporting the amendment, I voted against it.
Probably will not make all that much difference but I am not sure of that.
Live in Fl do ya?
Oh, c’mon! It’s a serious question! :-)
I just looked up some studies that had been done in the wake of the Bush/Gore fiasco. One said it would have changed the outcome, and the other said it would not have.
Served their time?
Kept of trouble?
If they are citizens, they vote.
They paid their price.
Now if you want harsher penalties, that is a different conversation.
I’ve worked in prison providing direct services to inmates. My experience is that black inmates did not talk about politics. Some white inmates would talk and usually were conservative.
I do part-time.
Most of these felons are hardly likely to ever vote.
Things have a way of backfiring on the Democrats. Remember they run the prison systems too
Interesting. As I mentioned somewhere above, studies have been done on this.
I love vanities. Keep ‘em coming!
Why?
Anyone think a white survivor of prison would vote for a Democrat?
no surprise. some of the most hysterical logs on the bonfire are yours.
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