I agree, Darth. Buck, we can’t revert to history and use historical averages unless the facts on the ground are similar to those that were in place then. The basis for the historical occurrences is that the party in power is complacent and the out party is hungry to get power back. Is that’s what’s going on here? Four months ago I would have said yes, but now it’s not. The polls are over but there’s an overall trend that is in the R favor.. the shift in the CT governorship being the most recent example. Now the rats could run the board on the toss ups- they did that with the Senate in 2008, but that seems unlikely over so many house races. Like many here I follow this stuff obsessively. I study all the straws in the wind and try hard to avoid confirmation bias. My best guess lines up with Dead’s. I think the house range is dems control by 8 to reps control by 8. Again I agree with Dead, and my prediction is hold the house by 5 and gain 5 in the Sentate
You are too conservative in your analysis. I got inside information on the early voting that puts to bed alot of the nonsense on this thread.