You are too conservative in your analysis. I got inside information on the early voting that puts to bed alot of the nonsense on this thread.
How about sharing some of that inside information?
Darth, I suspect you may be right. I set my prediction about 3 weeks out and don’t change it lest my friends who have to listen time accuse me of being dodgy. If I were to recalibrate today it would be dems control by 3 to reps control by 13, with the prediction being gop by 10. I certainly would like to see the Senate +7 or 8 and I think hopefulness there is supported by the sum of the data. At this point I think +5 is all but “take it to the bank.” I think we hold our three and, in descending order of likelihood of flip: ND, MO, IN, MT, FL, WV, OH, NJ, MI, MN