Bagster
Copying LS’s informative comment about upcoming elections:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3674348/posts?page=37#37
In lieu of one of my updates, I’m going to make a few comments here, cuz most of them are related to the election:
Over the past two weeks I spoke with a guy I call “OhioWan,” who knows OH politics inside & out & who assured me Trump would win OH by “four or five” in 2016 (He was four or five points LOW, but still closer than most). He tells me Balderson is up 10 now in OH12 Special, and will hold again in NOV, and that Chabot “will win.” “No OH Republican is in trouble,” he said, referring to the House.
Next, over the last weekend I spoke to a top (very high) AZ political source in the R party. He says they have a reasonable goal of holding McSally’s seat and flipping Sinema’s and O’Halleran’s. I asked why he was optimistic, and he said the woman running for Sinema’s seat is a Hispanic, head of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, she has deep roots in Tucson, and has a very large family-—all Ds, and all supporting her. Asked about McSally’s seat he said, “We will win it.”
Next I spoke with a CO political operative and he said the only R on a “tossup” list (I think Hoffman?) is safe. He said he saw an internal study that the anti-Trump state GOP at the time took down after a day and replaced with a Rove-backed Magellan study, and that 2016 study showed Trump carried Is and had strong appeal with Ds. What sunk him in OH was the anti-Trumper GOP. He says a great deal has changed at the top-—even though you still have people like Corey Gardiner-—and that it is very Trump friendly now, and he says Trump will win CO in 2020. I pointed out the voter reg trend, which has gone from GOP +5 in 2014 to D +1 in 2017 (but stabilized) and he said Trump won heavy D districts, but lost a couple of suburban GOP districts that he’ll carry next time.
The woman running for Issa’s seat in CA49 is not as well funded as her opponent, but is running at +3 while Issa only won with +1.
My TX connections swear “no Texas R is in trouble.”
I think we’ll lose a couple in PA, but likely get back Conor Lamb’s seat in PA18.
Bottom line: the scuttlebutt on the ground I’m getting from key states in no way lines up with some of the Larry Sabato/Byron York stuff about Ds taking the House.
Right now, I have the Ds right at the failsafe point of gaining 25 seats if they win EVERY SINGLE ONE of the remaining contested seats. But I have MN people telling me Rs will flip two seats there. In the best of all worlds, if everything goes perfect, we could net gain 2-4 seats in the fall.
As for the Senate, we are right now net 3-5 (MO, IN, FL, MT, ND) with Manchin on the bubble. Heller is up in recent polls in NV, so that looks like a hold. Disregard all AZ polling until we have a candidate in 4 weeks. It’s just meaningless to pit Sinema against “x”. Ward voters say they’ll stay home if it’s McSally, McSally voters say the same, and no one knows what Joe is doing. But when we have a candidate it will be immediately a tie race. The three longshots are MI, PA, and WI. If everything went our way and one of the longshots came in, we could end up with net six in the senate. Remember, though, a lot of those will be Trumpers replacing neverTrumper Rs, so the net gain will be HUGE.
Bagster
Thanks for the LS information.
An update on the “farm team” players: Obama just endorsed the Dem candidate for governor here in GA, Stacey Abrams.
Abrams’ opponent come November, Brian Kemp who quickly flipped about 53 percentage points after Trump’s endorsement to win the Rep nomination, is hitting hard at Abrams right out of the chute. One of Kemp’s TV adds has Abram’s picture placed in the middle of two angry-looking women: Pelosi and HRC. Nice affect.
Also monitoring WSB radio here for any mention of Q. Nothing to report as yet.