Posted on 07/11/2018 4:37:51 PM PDT by Clint N. Suhks
ByBRAD CRAWFORD Jul 9, 8:02 AM
Which college football teams are the most complete and talent-rich heading into the 2018 season?
Preseason magazine guru Phil Steele, who studies rosters and interviews coaches 12 months out of the year, believes he has an idea. He has compiled his annual 'Preseason Top 40' rankings, a list that's usually one of the most accurate nationally.
Steele notes two important guidelines about this year's rankings, which for this exercise have been trimmed to the first 25 teams. "My preseason rankings are not my power rankings," Steele writes. "These rankings take into account the totality of the circumstances that I feel each team will face in the 2018 season — schedule strength, foes' schedules (coming off byes), experience edges at the start of the year and so forth.
"My Top 40 is where I project teams to finish in the final rankings and have always done quite well. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season. Over the past five years, 244 of the 274 teams that I have listed in my top rankings have made it to bowl eligibility and that is a solid 89 percent."
Here is a look at Steele's preseason Top 25 rankings for the 2018 season:
25. ARKANSAS STATE
From Phil Steele's College Football Preview magazine: "Arkansas State is just No. 73 in my Power Poll, but was arguably the best team in the Sun Belt last year and returns QB Justice Hansen. They do face Alabama on the road, but they could end up being favored in 11 games this season."
247Sports take: Steele starts his preseason poll off with a bang with the inclusion of the Red Wolves, who won't be recognized in any other preseason rankings most likely. He believes Arkansas State could finish the season 11-1 with a host of returners, most notably Hansen, a fifth-year senior who threw for nearly 4,000 yards last fall and had 37 touchdown passes.
24. OREGON
Steele: "The Ducks have their third head coach in three years which is a concern and might have the No. 1 QB taken in next year's draft in Justin Herbert. Offense averaged 52.1 PPG with him as a starter in 2017 and just 15 PPG without him."
247Sports take: We've mentioned Herbert's importance to this team throughout the offseason and he is paramount to Oregon's success in Year 1 under Mario Cristobal's regime. If the Ducks move past Washington on Oct. 13 with one loss or fewer, they've got a chance to make serious noise down the stretch in the Pac-12 and in the national title hunt. The conference opener in Autzen vs. Stanford in Week 4 is one of the most important games of the year.
23. BOSTON COLLEGE
Steele: "A.J. Dillon is running behind my No. 6 offensive line with much improved WRs and Boston College has my 19th-ranked defense. If they can get steady QB play, they will be dangerous. This is Steve Addazio’s best team yet and the ACC’s most experienced.”
247Sports take: Dillon is one of college football's most underrated players and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a freshman last season with 14 touchdowns. If he stays healthy, Boston College has arguably the ACC's best ballcarrier with Florida State's Cam Akers and Clemson's Travis Etienne close behind. The defense returns a few notable players that could carry this team this season.
22. UTAH
Steele: "The Pac-12 South is wide open and Utah has QB Huntley, RB Moss, a veteran oline, a Top 25 defense and my No. 1 rated special teams. This team is capable of double-digit wins and will contend in the South."
247Sports take: Utah is one of the more undervalued teams nationally and didn't find a spot in a major bowl in our preseason projections. The Pac-12 is loaded with talented teams at the top without much separation. The Utes should probably be mentioned in the same breath as Washington, Stanford and USC, but often isn't.
21. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Steele: "This is the best Bulldog team in a long time with two solid QBs, my No. 19 RB, No. 20 OL, No. 3 DL and No. 18 DB units. Mississippi State is No. 5 on my experience chart and has a manageable schedule. Coaching change is the only question."
247Sports take: Like Steele, we're putting the microscope under Joe Moorhead as it relates to the Bulldogs' overall success this season. The talent is there to win nine or more, but can Mississippi State get it done without Dan Mullen? A solid start and establishing early confidence as a Top 20 team in the polls is key. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who is returning from a broken ankle, is an All-SEC first team candidate.
20. TCU
Steele: "TCU falls from No. 4 on my experience chart in 2017 to No. 120 in 2018. The Frogs still have have the Big 12's best defense (No. 7 in FBS). They do face Ohio State and Texas in back-to-back games away from home in September, but Gary Patterson will have them a Big 12 contender."
247Sports take: With nearly all of its starting talent on offense departing, TCU could be a mixed bag early on that side of the football. Quarterback Shawn Robinson's development is vital to this year's success until leadership is recognizable elsewhere. Eight wins and a solid bowl berth feels like the ceiling for a program expected to take a small step back nationally.
19. AUBURN
Steele: "The Tigers are led by QB Jarrett Stidham and last year knocked off No. 2 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama in a three-week span. This year, Auburn, has to play THREE Top 5 teams on the road, which has them only No. 19."
247Sports take: Steele's right — the schedule is a real challenge for the Tigers. But I wouldn't call a game vs. Washington in Atlanta as a "road" game. If anything, that's favorable to the Tigers, who will likely out-number Huskies fans 3:1. Win that opener and momentum is already established before the SEC slate begins. The Iron Bowl should once again dictate which team wins the SEC West.
18. FLORIDA STATE
Steele: "Florida State barely made a bowl at 6-6 in 2017 and now has a new head coach. Willie Taggart is pleased with the talent he has inherited and FSU has my No. 8 QB, No. 6 RB, No. 14 OL, No. 7 DL, No. 13 DB and No. 6 ST units.'
247Sports take: Remember when the Seminoles were supposed to beat Alabama to open the 2017 season? Yeah, about that. Preseason projections aren't always accurate and everyone missed the boat on FSU. No one expected starting quarterback Deondre Francois to go down in the opener, but the Seminoles did an admirable job piecing it together and still getting to the postseason. Is nine wins the ceiling in Taggart's first campaign?
17. FLORIDA
Steele: "Dan Mullen always gets the most out of his squads and steps into a great situation as Florida was devastated by suspensions and injuries, then coaching turmoil. Mullen inherits 19 starters. Florida is my No. 1 most-improved team."
247Sports take: Mullen inherits the best situation out of any first-year SEC coach in a division that's wide open behind frontrunner Georgia. The Gators welcome Jordan Scarlett back after a one-year suspension and hope all five starters returning up front helps a new-look offense. Florida's bread is always buttered on defense and if that unit plays well, the Gators could challenge for nine victories.
16. USC
Steele: "The Trojans lose QB Sam Darnold, their top RB and WR , but have solid replacements and my No. 9-rated defense and No. 12 special teams. They avoid Washington from the North and should be in the Pac-12 title game."
247Sports take: Will the Trojans take the next step under Clay Helton? They've increased their win total each of the past two seasons and doing so in 2018 would likely mean a Playoff berth. There's quite a buzz out West surrounding first-year quarterback J.T. Daniels, who many feel will be USC's starter. He's dynamic with a rocket arm and opposing Pac-12 elites have no film to game plan for him.
15. STANFORD
Steele: "Bryce Love rushed for 2,118 yards in 2017 and turned down the NFL. They have a solid QB in KJ Costello, a tall and dangerous receiving corps and one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense has my No. 4 LB unit and the Cardinal are a complete team with my No. 2 special teams unit. Stanford has to play at Oregon, Notre Dame and Washington and draws USC out of the South. Even at No. 15, a legitimate title contender."
247Sports take: We're not as high on Stanford as Steele when you look at the treacherous schedule. To make the final four, the Cardinal would need to finish with one loss or fewer and that'll be a serious challenge with at least three games against Top 10 competition. Now if Love is magical and stays healthy throughout, all bets are off and Stanford could be a national force.
14. BOISE STATE
Steele: "Brett Rypien is back at QB and has good talent surrounding him. The Boise defense allowed 333 YPG in 2017 and only loses five lettermen, returning 16 of the Top 18 tacklers. The Broncos do have to travel to Troy and Oklahoma State, but both of those games are winnable and the Broncos are my pick to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Years Six bowl games."
247Sports take: No love for UCF or Florida Atlantic here, eh? Boise State as the Group of 5 "champion" would take a few unexpected losses from teams in the state of Florida.
13. MICHIGAN STATE
Steele: "Of the Big 4 teams in the Big Ten East, Michigan State is the most experienced (No. 13 on my experience chart) and has the best schedule, They have one road game vs. a team that had a winning record (Penn State), avoid Wisconsin and host Michigan and Ohio State. Six of their eight units rank in my Top 25, led by No. 7 DB and that have my No. 4 defense overall."
247Sports take: Returning multi-year starters Brian Lewerke (quarterback) and L.J. Scott (running back) have received most of the preseason attention in East Lansing, but it's that star-heavy Spartans defense that will be this team's calling card this fall
12. PENN STATE
Steele: "The Nittany Lions have my No. 1 QB unit in the country led by Trace McSorley. Despite losing RB Saquon Barkley they have my No. 24 RBs. Head coach James Franklin feels the offensive line is the best he has had and a strength. Penn State has a Top 20 defense and a Top 10 offense, with just one tough road game (Michigan) and they get Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin at home."
247Sports take: Winning 11 games for a third consecutive season won't be easy for Penn State, which replaces arguably the two most important pieces on offense — Barkley and OC Joe Moorhead. McSorley's return certainly helps and he'll be in the Heisman conversation in late November if Penn State is still in Big Ten title contention.
11. MICHIGAN
Steele: "Michigan needed a QB and got one in Patterson. Michigan has my No. 14 RB, No. 21 WR, No. 6 DL, No. 12 LB, No. 1 DB and No. 19 ST units. The Wolverines do have to face Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State all on the road and Wisconsin and Penn State at home. They are No. 6 in my Power Poll, but the schedule has them down here."
247Sports take: Facing one of college football's most brutal schedules, "The Ohio State Game" may not even mean all that much besides ruining the Buckeyes' season in late November if the Wolverines don't care of business vs. several Top 20 programs before the two teams meet in Columbus. Michigan is hoping Patterson is the real deal at quarterback.
10. TEXAS
Steele: "When I talked to head coach Tom Herman, he was very unhappy with the performance of 2017’s RBs and OL (Texas avg. 3.6 YPC). He has talent to work with and if he gets that turned around, he has a top-notch defense and two veteran QBs. Texas was much better than its 7-6 record last year and the Longhorns were in my ESPN Vegas Top 25 power ratings all year long. The Horns’ toughest road games are Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and they are my No. 2 surprise team (behind Florida).”
247Sports take: We like Texas, too, and are picking the Longhorns to finish no worse than second in the Big 12 this season.
9. OKLAHOMA
Steele: "The Sooners lose Baker Mayfield and Obo Okoronkwo, but will have a potent offense once again and perhaps an improved defense. Kyler Murray is an exciting athlete with starting experience at QB. Oklahoma has my No. 5 RB, No. 4 WR, No. 5 OL and could have a Top 40 defense. There are no dominating teams in the Big 12, so road games vs. Texas, TCU and West Virginia are winnable. Oklahoma is capable of getting back to the Playoff."
247Sports take: It's hard to imagine the Sooners reaching the final four again without Mayfield, but if they enter the postseason with one loss or fewer as champions of the Big 12, they're likely in as long as the conference has a few elite teams at the top. Rodney Anderson is one of college football's most underrated ballcarriers and should go for 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns this fall as Murray's running mate in the backfield.
8. NOTRE DAME
Steele: "The Irish were my No. 1 most improved team last year and went from 4-8 to No. 3 in the country at one point, finishing 10-3. They take the next step as my No. 1 surprise team this year. Notre Dame has two veteran QBs, my No. 22 RB, No. 8 OL, No. 21 DL, No. 13 LB and No. 17 DB units. They move up from No. 84 to No. 51 on my experience chart. The Irish do not have an easy schedule, but could be favored in their toughest games at Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC. They learned how to win last year and are ready for the next step."
247Sports take: Sounds like Steele likes Notre Dame as a darkhorse final four team, doesn't it? Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is the ultimate wild-card for a group with impressive talent on both sides. If he plays well, starting with a confidence-building win over Michigan in the opener, the sky is the limit for Brian Kelly's team this fall.
7. MIAMI
Steele: "The Hurricanes were my No. 2 surprise team last year. Despite entering No. 18 in the AP Poll, they would have made the Playoff if their offense was not banged up at the end and they would have upset Clemson in the ACC Title Game. Miami moves up from No. 73 on my experience chart to No. 49. Miami now has a veteran QB, my No. 20 RB, No. 17 WRs, No. 25 OL, No. 14 DL, No. 7 LB and No. 9 DB units. They open with LSU in Arlington and do have Boston College, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech on the road. They have a great shot at running the table and an ACC Title win would put them in the Playoff."
247Sports take: Steele's high on Miami this season, isn't he? Miami isn't yet sold on Rosier as QB1, according to insiders and replacing Mark Walton as the lead running back and wideout Braxton Berrios and a gamebreaker might be easier said than done.
6. WISCONSIN
Steele: "Wisconsin parlayed a soft schedule and solid talent into 12-0 last year. They lost a close game to Ohio State in the Big Ten Title Game or would have made the Playoff. Wisconsin goes from No. 33 on my experience chart up to No. 3! The Badgers have a three-year starter at QB, my No. 4 RB, No. 1 OL, No. 2 LB and No. 14 DB units. There road schedule is much tougher this year with Iowa, Michigan and Penn State all away, but they have my No. 7 offense and No. 10 defense overall and are No. 5 in my power poll."
247Sports take: Not to mention Wisconsin welcomes back all-everything tailback Jonathan Taylor, who is on the Heisman shortlist entering the season. If the Badgers win those aforementioned seesaw games in conference play, Paul Chryst's squad will be in the Playoff with an experience edge on mostly everyone else.
5. GEORGIA
Steele: "The Bulldogs had a very impressive postseason in 2017, beating No. 4 Auburn, No. 2 Oklahoma and losing to Alabama in OT in the title game. Georgia does from No. 13 to No. 80 on my experience chart and having only five starters back on D is concerning. Georgia has my No. 6 QB, No. 11 RB, No. 8 WR, No. 2 OL, No. 15 DL, No. 16 LB, No. 16 DB and No. 8 ST and rank No. 4 in my power poll. They do play South Carolina, LSU and Florida away from home, but will be favored in all 12.
247Sports take: Georgia is our preseason pick to win the SEC East and battle Alabama for a spot in the final four. There's a good chance both teams are back in the Playoff if they enter that final game at 12-0 (and they're favored to do so).
4. WASHINGTON
Steele: "Two years ago, I had Washington as my No. 1 surprise team and they got to the Playoff despite not being in the preseason Top 10. I did not have the Huskies in the Playoff last year, but that have the talent and only face my No. 58-rated schedule. I expect a much bigger year from QB Jake Browning and Washington has my No. 7 RB, No. 13 OL, No. 11 DL, No. 11 LB and No. 2 DB units. They have some land mines as they open with Auburn in Atlanta then travel to Utah and Oregon, but this team is capable of winning all 12. I have Washington as the No. 8 offense and No. 5 defense in the country."
247Sports take: Huskies tailback Myles Gaskin isn't getting enough love this preseason. With three consecutive 1,300-yard plus seasons on the ground, this kid should be a Heisman frontrunner with the talent returning around him. Several of Washington's starting seniors have Playoff experience (2016) and are looking to get back.
3. OHIO STATE
Steele: "The Buckeyes were deep in the argument to make the Playoff, but a blowout loss to Oklahoma and a 55-24 loss to Iowa (really?) made an overwhelming argument to keep them out. That may have been a blessing in disguise as they beat USC, gained confidence and finished No. 5. Ohio State does drop from No. 38 to No. 97 on my experience chart and has two road games against Top 15 teams (Penn State and Michigan State) and plays TCU in Arlington. They would likely have to battle Wisconsin in the Big 10 Title Game, so the road is tough. OSU is loaded and has a coach that can win big games."
247Sports take: The schedule isn't easy, but Ohio State is the obvious favorite in the Big Ten this season based on talent, with Wisconsin and Penn State vying for that No. 2 slot. The key player to watch is first-year starting quarterback Dwayne Haskins and his transition to a leadership role on offense.
2. CLEMSON
Steele: "I figured all four Clemson DL's would leave early for the draft, then all four opted to stay for 2018! Clemson has two capable QBs, my No. 8 RBs, No. 1 DL, No. 8 LBs and No. 5 DB units. Last year they went into the Playoff as the No. 1 seed, but were used to being the dog in the Playoff and lost. Clemson does have to travel to Florida State, but won their last trip in Tallahassee and had the more talented squad. Clemson will be favored in every game and is stronger than the 2017 squad as it goes from No. 108 on my experience chart up to No. 23 this year. Could it be the fourth straight year they face Alabama in the Playoff?"
247Sports take: You're not going to find a more feared foursome than Clemson's defensive line and that doesn't even include top-ranked edge rusher Xavier Thomas, who the Tigers signed in the 2018 class. Dabo Swinney's team is considerably more talented than every team on the schedule and that'll show during the regular season.
1. ALABAMA
Steele: "The Tide had yet to win a national title when preseason No. 1 under Nick Saban and while they barely got into the Playoff, they finally accomplished that. Alabama has two solid QBs, my No. 2 RBs, No. 3 OL, No. 4 DL, No. 1 LBs and No. 8 DBs in the country. They are once again the deepest team in the country and unlike 2015 and 2016 when they were No. 124 and No. 116 on my experience chart, Bama is No. 50 on the exp. chart this year. Saban recruits the best talent and develops it and the competition at each position makes everyone better. Bama will be favored by double digits in every game on the schedule and the SEC Title Game could be a national title rematch, but even if they're 12-1, they'll probably still make the Playoff."
247Sports take: Alabama is the overwhelming preseason No. 1 and as Steele mentions, has the most complete depth in college football. It'll be interesting to see how the Crimson Tide look offensively once Tua Tagovailoa officially takes over as QB1.
The SEC has two teams in the Top 16... the Big Ten has five.
Michigan and ND rated too high. Wisconsin way too high. The Big Ten Esst is a nasty division
No UCF? They were the self appointed number one team last year.
And yet Nick Saban has won 6 Naties for the SEC. #RollTide
Noted, but not surprising insofar as these are annual achievements. I just wonder if they are starting to take these things for granted. I certainly hope not.
Where is LSU and ATM?
This is laughable!!!
Sorry I missed this gem! That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time...you
should write for Sports Illustrated.
ATM=TexA&M? I assume?
Hell yea this poll is screwed up, just the first one I could find to publish on FR to get the subject rolling. I’m jone’s me some college football...
It's the "Cam Newton Curse".
I don’t think we need to go there...
Well, ever since Cam left UF, we haven’t had a decent quarterback.
No Geaux?
This poll sux
OMG that’s right!
You have a legit grudge.
Another great topic for Sports Illustrated! I’m series! You are so funny!
“This poll sux”
Just the first one, go college football! The NFL sux.
Auburn couldn’t beat the real national champions, UCF, just a few months ago.
She’s the best thing about watching games on the SEC Network.
Texas #10? Based on what ... wishful thinking?
I hope they do better than last year, but I’ll wait and see.
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