Both. It -is- real technological progress, and Ballmer was a damned obsessive idiot. He was completely, utterly, unable to fathom anything other than "Windows Uber Alles". He made a lot of terrible business decisions in the early 2000's that almost killed Microsoft's ability to move forward, and it took pushing him out to get the company moving back to a point where they could make progress again.
Ballmer was an ok marketer/manager, but not a technical guy. And, at least from the outside, it seems like he was an angry manager, who used fear as a tool. Microsoft stagnated under him.
IMHO, Bill Gates knew it, but wanted to move on to whatever it is he’s moved on to. Thinking, charity... whatever.