Posted on 04/16/2018 6:57:24 AM PDT by C19fan
The Governor of the Bank of England has warned that the rise of robots in the workplace could cause a revival in Communism and 19th-century wage stagnation.
Mark Carney, 53, said automation of millions of jobs would result in more support of Communist ideas within a generation.
'Marx and Engels may again become relevant' if mechanisation forces down pay and raises inequality, he warned.
To alleviate the damage, Carney suggested workers should train for jobs that require higher emotional intelligence, for example in care and leisure.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Smart people will always be able to find work.
The problem is that automation eliminates the jobs that people who aren’t as educated, nor ambitious could get.
Which could result in a violent revolt.
I think it is different now, that’s all. It won’t be just dummy jobs that will disappear in the robot revolution, but jobs that require at least a medium level IQ, which is the bulk of the jobs.
You might be safe, if you have a 200IQ and super aptitude that cannot be adapted to processes that, one process at a time, add up to complex skills, but 85% of us won’t be that lucky.
Nobody really has an answer to this problem. All the tech oligarchs are trying to make their money and retiring, because I don’t think they have the answer either and they know it.
New technologies, careers, and jobs are always been invented by those who have extra money and leisure time. We could use all that extra productivity and wealth to build great and vast public works or to colonize Mars.
Ok, veterans get an extra vote.
Secretary was not a dummy job. Burger flipping perhaps is. Lots of other “dummy” jobs (e.g., truck driver) still exist. Though they are obviously being targeted, I’m not buying it in the short- to mid-term.
Sure, more mid-level, say 100-IQ jobs, like simply insurance clerks may be disappearing, but that has been going on for some time.
Lots of home care, child care and teaching, landscaping, etc., still required.
What’s the name of my plantation? You must be joking.
WMarshal, I am a tax and debt slave much like about 100 million of other deplorables out there.
Anyway, skin in the game is key - however it is deemed appropriate.
Oh, but I will say that there is plenty of reason to kick out the 10s of millions of low-skill illegals we have in the country currently.
They can go and improve their home countries, where such levels of automation are still a long ways off.
Ship them out of here and we will have plenty of jobs for our low-skill AND high-skill people, though there will obviously be some economic disruption in the adjustment.
For now.
“This hysteria is just being used as an excuse to push Marxism.”
Right. And many will be all too happy to take the bait.
I would question the 3:1 tradeoff number. Think of what it takes to manufacture a robot in terms of hardware and software. Also, unlike a human, robots are serviced and maintained by people and have a work life that is shorter than a human. So far, the Industrial Revolution has continued to grow economies around the globe, and a good part of that growth has been in the last two decades. Indeed, how did the Chinese take away the manufacturing jobs? They did it by substituting capital for labor. Why can’t we do the same thing? In many cases, the unions priced themselves out of the labor market.
Some are, in the short run (surgeons, pure research activities, etc.). I think the key to someone not having to worry about it is to invest in themselves to acquire skill sets that are difficult to automate.
I think the key to someone not having to worry about it is to invest in themselves to acquire skill sets that are difficult to automate.
But I’ve kinda been here before. I used to be a COBOL programmer. One day in the mid-1990’s a friend who managed a lot of programmers, many of which were Indian contractors, mentioned to me that the American contractors billed at $75 an hour and the Indians, who were arguably MORE productive, billed at $17.50. I saw the writing on the wall and became a PM and then BA (business analist). The latter is a lot more fun and springboards off my developer past.
But the thing is that though throughout history, technology has made men more productive, replacing one skill set but creating a need for another, this doesn’t seem to be the case this time. As some are saying, this time it really is different.
That being said, for all we know it will create a need for something that only humans can do. Something nobody is even thinking about. But since everyone paying attention can imagine every known function of human beings being replaced by robotics, the question is, what, specifically, A) man can do that machines can’t and B) will be a skill needed (or wanted) in such massive quantity that it can employ a massive number of human beings?
100 JOBS MOST AT RISK OF BEING REPLACED BY ROBOTS
RANKING PROBABILITY OF BEING REPLACED OCCUPATION
1 0.99 Telemarketers
2 0.99 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers
3 0.99 Sewers, Hand
4 0.99 Mathematical Technicians
5 0.99 Insurance Underwriters
6 0.99 Watch Repairers
7 0.99 Cargo and Freight Agents
8 0.99 Tax Preparers
9 0.99 Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators
10 0.99 New Accounts Clerks
11 0.99 Library Technicians
12 0.99 Data Entry Keyers
13 0.98 Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters
14 0.98 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks
15 0.98 Brokerage Clerks
16 0.98 Order Clerks
17 0.98 Loan Officers
18 0.98 Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage
19 0.98 Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials
20 0.98 Tellers
21 0.98 Etchers and Engravers
22 0.98 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
23 0.98 Procurement Clerks
24 0.98 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks
25 0.98 Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
26 0.98 Credit Analysts
27 0.98 Parts Salespersons
28 0.98 Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators
29 0.98 Driver/Sales Workers
30 0.98 Radio Operators
31 0.98 Legal Secretaries
32 0.98 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
33 0.98 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers
34 0.98 Models
35 0.97 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop
36 0.97 Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks
37 0.97 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks
38 0.97 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians
39 0.97 Telephone Operators
40 0.97 Real Estate Brokers
41 0.97 File Clerks
42 0.97 Counter and Rental Clerks
43 0.97 Prepress Technicians and Workers
44 0.97 Motion Picture Projectionists
45 0.97 Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers
46 0.97 Cashiers
47 0.97 Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians
48 0.97 Log Graders and Scalers
49 0.97 Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation
50 0.97 Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand
51 0.97 Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
52 0.97 Dental Laboratory Technicians
53 0.97 Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders
54 0.97 Farm Labor Contractors
55 0.97 Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers
56 0.97 Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders
57 0.97 Team Assemblers
58 0.97 Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing
59 0.97 Bridge and Lock Tenders
60 0.96 Billing and Posting Clerks
61 0.96 Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers
62 0.96 Cooks, Restaurant
63 0.96 Fabric Menders, Except Garment
64 0.96 Gaming Dealers
65 0.96 Locomotive Engineers
66 0.96 Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders
67 0.96 Model Makers, Wood
68 0.96 Surveying and Mapping Technicians
69 0.96 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive
70 0.96 Rock Splitters, Quarry
71 0.96 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop
72 0.96 Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service
73 0.96 Compensation and Benefits Managers
74 0.96 Office Clerks, General
75 0.96 Receptionists and Information Clerks
76 0.96 Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance
77 0.95 Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers
78 0.95 Postal Service Clerks
79 0.95 Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffng Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
80 0.95 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers
81 0.95 Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders
82 0.95 Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers
83 0.95 Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders Metal and Plastic
84 0.95 Animal Breeders
85 0.95 Print Binding and Finishing Workers
86 0.95 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators
87 0.95 Library Assistants, Clerical
88 0.95 Nuclear Power Reactor Operators
89 0.95 Bill and Account Collectors
90 0.95 Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
91 0.95 Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers, Recordkeeping
92 0.95 Manicurists and Pedicurists
93 0.94 Paralegals and Legal Assistants
94 0.94 Agricultural Inspectors
95 0.94 First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers
96 0.94 Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers
97 0.94 Tire Builders
98 0.94 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks
99 0.94 Helpers, Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons
100 0.94 Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators
100 JOBS LEAST AT RISK OF BEING REPLACED BY ROBOTS
RANKING PROBABILITY OF BEING REPLACED OCCUPATION
601 0.027 Chiropractors
602 0.027 Biochemists and Biophysicists
603 0.025 Electronics Engineers, Except Computer
604 0.025 Directors, Religious Activities and Education
605 0.025 First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
606 0.023 Art Directors
607 0.023 Orthodontists
608 0.022 Interior Designers
609 0.022 Producers and Directors
610 0.021 Photographers
611 0.021 Physical Therapists
612 0.021 Fashion Designers
613 0.021 Materials Engineers
614 0.021 Materials Scientists
615 0.021 Soil and Plant Scientists
616 0.02 Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners, All Other
617 0.019 Civil Engineers
618 0.018 Physical Therapist Assistants
619 0.018 Architects, Except Landscape and Naval
620 0.018 Environmental Engineers
621 0.018 Natural Sciences Managers
622 0.017 Aerospace Engineers
623 0.017 Architectural and Engineering Managers
624 0.017 Chemical Engineers
625 0.016 Special Education Teachers, Middle School
626 0.016 Conservation Scientists
627 0.016 Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents
628 0.016 First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
629 0.015 Music Directors and Composers
630 0.015 Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program
631 0.015 Chief Executives
632 0.015 Computer and Information Research Scientists
633 0.015 Multimedia Artists and Animators
634 0.015 Public Relations and Fundraising Managers
635 0.015 Biological Scientists, All Other
636 0.014 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers
637 0.014 Training and Development Specialists
638 0.014 Engineers, All Other
639 0.014 Marriage and Family Therapists
640 0.95 Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators
641 0.014 Marketing Managers
642 0.014 Hydrologists
643 0.013 Sales Managers
644 0.013 Coaches and Scouts
645 0.012 Industrial-Organizational Psychologists
646 0.012 Microbiologists
647 0.012 Logisticians
648 0.012 Pharmacists
649 0.011 Mechanical Engineers
650 0.01 Education Administrators, Postsecondary
651 0.01 Marine Engineers and Naval Architects
652 0.01 Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance
653 0.0095 Forensic Science Technicians
654 0.0095 Teachers and Instructors, All Other
655 0.0094 Rehabilitation Counselors
656 0.009 Registered Nurses
657 0.0088 Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School
658 0.0085 Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors
659 0.0081 Foresters
660 0.0081 Clergy
661 0.0078 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education
662 0.0077 Special Education Teachers, Secondary School
663 0.0077 Anthropologists and Archeologists
664 0.0075 Farm and Home Management Advisors
665 0.0074 Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
666 0.0073 Medical and Health Services Managers
667 0.0071 Athletic Trainers
668 0.0068 Curators
669 0.0067 Social and Community Service Managers
670 0.0065 Computer Systems Analysts
671 0.0064 Speech-Language Pathologists
672 0.0063 Training and Development Managers
673 0.0061 Recreation Workers
674 0.0055 Human Resources Managers
675 0.0055 Set and Exhibit Designers
676 0.0049 Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers
677 0.0048 Mental Health Counselors
678 0.0047 Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists
679 0.0046 Podiatrists
680 0.0046 Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School
681 0.0045 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists
682 0.0044 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
683 0.0044 Dentists, General
684 0.0044 First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives
685 0.0043 Psychologists, All Other
686 0.0042 Instructional Coordinators
687 0.029 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and vehicle operators
688 0.0042 Physicians and Surgeons
689 0.0041 Sales Engineers
690 0.004 Choreographers
691 0.0039 Lodging Managers
692 0.0039 Dietitians and Nutritionists
693 0.0036 First-Line Supervisors of Fire Fighting and Prevention Workers
694 0.0036 Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
695 0.0035 Healthcare Social Workers
696 0.0035 Orthotists and Prosthetists
697 0.0035 Occupational Therapists
698 0.0033 Audiologists
699 0.0031 Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers
700 0.003 Emergency Management Directors
701 0.003 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers
702 0.0028 Recreational Therapists
Yep.
And if people on our side are falling for it, just imagine the hysteria on the left.
I wasn’t meaning to be factual about the 3:1, other than that every bit of automation is going to make jobs disappear and the number of new jobs will be less in number. It’s a net loss of jobs, over the long term.
I believe in increasing productivity, but I think philosophically, we should be keeping people at every juncture point. There shouldn’t be time when we don’t end up having to deal with a real person to have our needs met. Just because a little bit of automation is positive, doesn’t mean 100% automation, potential, is a lot better in my view.
We humans tend to think in terms of extremes. We aren’t very good at moderation and keeping our philosophies where they work. If I read my Bible correctly, we should be moderate in all things, to which I include automation.
I suppose wars will take care of that “surplus population”.
The robots will kill all of the displaced workers and create a mechanized utopian world for themselves with those of us remaining as their slaves. “Would you like oil with that, master?”
Elon Musk expressed that concern and I don’t think totally wrong. Experiments in AI so far have shown it not being capable of measuring morality. Everything is the same to it.
I think Avengers:Ultron showed the limitations of AI, as far, quite well.
I retired almost 10 years ago teaching programming (ex-prof at Purdue). I also had my own software company for about 17 years and work through the offshoring period. That has dies down quite a bit over the years, partly because of the difficulty of on-going software support. I think offshoring is a lot less now than, say, 20 years ago.
As to the non-substituting of capital for labor, that has to be a long, long list. The adverse impact of technology is on those who don’t invest in themselves.
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