No, I don’t disagree. I simply meant that pinpointing exact numbers is not as easy as looking up voting tallies in 1856 or something. Even the numbers might be misleading. For example, post 1861 cotton export numbers might include a certain amount of southern cotton smuggled north, or shipped to Canada to avoid the embargo and then brought into the USA for export. On the other hand, do the numbers for cotton exports include some processing in the north that added dollars to the value?
The bigger question is what impact did all this have on motivations to go to war. Even if one were to stipulate to these Southren claims, how would it account for the desire for secession? It doesn’t add up, and the rebels hardly mentioned trade when they issued public pronouncements on their reasoning.
I have no doubt the reason US 1861 exports included any cotton was because the pipeline & warehouses were left full after 1860's bumper crop.
Once the Confederate spigot closed, the value of every random bale soared and sold at a premium.
SoCal Pubbie: "The bigger question is what impact did all this have on motivations to go to war."
Pro-Confederates remind us that South Carolina first threatened secession after the 1828 "Tariff of Abominations" prompting President Jackson's famous threat:
That was 1830 so in 1860 South Carolina was careful to enlist the entire Deep South in secession, and make the reason slavery, not tariffs.
But while protecting slavery sold well at home, it won no friends in Europe, and so was jettisoned there in favor of "free trade" and "oppressive Federal government."
And that Confederate argument seemed to work pretty well, until Lincoln blew it away with his Emancipation Proclamation.