Unlike a comet or an asteroid, the initial debris wave's probability of hitting earth can not be programmed into a computer.The only information we can get is its approximate arrival to our solar system, since we know that the debris is thrown out from the supernova at about 10% the speed of light.
It is very dangerous to anything in the neighborhood.
We know this?
ML/NJ
Given those numbers, by my calculations, if we see the explosion tomorrow. We have 5782.5 years until any debris hits our solar system.
Wouldn’t the size of an object that block’s Betelgeuse’s emissions from the earth be tiny, because it is so far away? It is a dot in our sky, what if we could place a basketball sized object in space at the exact distance where it blocks the star completely, and keep it in position there? Would something like that be possible?