Final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa has Trump winning easily

Ann Selzer is Iowa’s most respected pollster, someone whose track record of accurately calling the Iowa caucuses was impeccable … until she, er, predicted an easy win for Donald Trump in the final Des Moines Register poll this year. She had Trump beating Ted Cruz 28/23; the actual result was Cruz 27.6, Trump 24.3. She missed, in other words, by a net of eight points. Her final forecast for the general election, published last night: Trump by … seven. What could go wrong?

I’m just teasing. There’s every reason to believe Trump will win this state, which went twice for Obama, even if the margin isn’t quite the landslide Selzer is seeing. He hasn’t trailed in the RCP average of Iowa since September 1st and he led by seven points or better in more than one poll in mid-September. If Iowa, with its huge white working-class population, can’t deliver for Trump than we won’t need to worry about electoral maps or battleground states. It’ll be a national wipeout for Clinton.

To: Kaine, VP nominee:

1. Hillary's health: How is it?

2. Is it worse than she tells the public?

3. If you know that her health is worse than she tells us, then I say this:

4. You have a moral and religious obligation to tell us
that Hillary's health is worse than she tells us.

5. If Hillary is elected, imagine this happening:

6. 6 months or less after she takes office, Hillary is bedridden or put in the hospital for several weeks.

7. But back on Nov. 8, you knew that would soon happen because of Hillary's
poor health, and so it was inevitable that the day would come when Hillary would end up bedridden or in the hospital during her first year in office and that you would have to take over.

8. But because of your cowardice, you refused to tell the public before Nov. 8 that you knew that Hillary was in worse health than she told the public.

9. You are a devote Catholic with a Jesuit education: With such a background, you need to tell us in good conscience if you know that Hillary is in worse health than she tells the public.

10. Again, You have a moral and religious obligation to tell us in good conscience if
Hillary is in worse health than she tells us.

11. If Hillary becomes seriously sick soon after taking office, and we find out that you knew Hillary was seriously sick back in Oct. 2016, then we will condemn you and you will go down in history as a coward.

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