I have not studied the memo in much detail yet, so I don't have an opinion yet either, if it is legitimate.
But the memo WAS saved to Scribd by whoever leaked it.
HERE
Someone did a lousy job of blacking out who this was sent FROM
When I SELECT the text, including the blacked-out area, then PASTE that into NOTEPAD, or any other text editor, it shows who it was SENT From:
NATE SILVER.
Monmouth University Poll
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
__________________________________________________________________
From: Nate Sliver
To: PATRICK MURRAY [ EYES ONLY ]
Subject: Change the Narrative
Friday, September 16, 2016
Priority Message
Do Not Copy
Secure Email / Slack Only
NET MESSAGE: HILLARY-RESURGENCE
Key Notes:
* Birtherism – “Backfiring”
* Trump Unfavorables – “Climbing”
* Minority Voices – “support Hillary”
* Imply Racism (White Vote = Trump) – “Whites rally/cleave/etc. Trump”
* Rubio / Murphy: Poll Accurately [ IMMATERIAL ]
SCREENS
AGE: Attached screens will move 80% of targets into the 30-50 age range. Use included statistical model to re-skew for publication.
LOCATION: The location-call screens will favor south Tallahassee, east and north Gainesville, Central Tampa, north and west Jacksonville, west and south Orlando, and much of Dade / Broward counties. Space Coast regions and similar must be carefully screened for demographic.
DEMOGRAPHIC: This should be obvious. We are looking at a heavy minority foundation with a college-white salt. Favored are liberal arts degrees and, especially, sociology. See attached call-files.
EMPLOYMENT: We prefer polling areas of high unemployment for minority response. More are available to take calls during working hours and far, far fewer of them support Republican candidates.
EMBEDED NARRATIVE It is imperative to create a morale boosting narrative in the liberal demographics. Our last published polling note gave liberals a “week before panic.” We must deliver on a turn-around in polls or risk collapse of enthusiasm. The data from our call / email sieve as well as legitimate polling indicates a level of despondency equivalent, roughly, to the Michael Dukakis candidacy. This is due to (a) Trump’s successful presidential-narrative surge and (b) a massive lack of enthusiasm on the part of minority and millennial voters who are beginning to view Obama as a failed president and Hillary Clinton as a ‘lying harpy.’ (word association testing focus groups). In order to rally the male-liberal base we will need to produce “resurgent” Florida polling. The conventional wisdom is that Florida will be the fulcrum state for the election and if it is seen as lost to Trump then we will have domino defections throughout the other swing-states. Presently, our internal analysis shows the Democratic Firewall in extreme jeopardy. This week the news cycle MUST show Hillary regaining the lead in Florida.
STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, & THREATS
Strengths
Almost none. The voter-registrations in Florida are balanced but we need to have at least D+3 to have a credible story. We also need to greatly oversample women. This shouldn’t be hard to manage as they are more likely to answer the phone and chat. Liberal self-reporters are tanking (around 12% in real numbers). We are going to have it at around 30% which we can probably get away with. Below are the target demographics our screens should produce with minimal manual intervention.
......
SEE SCRIBD for the remainder of this memo
SEVERAL FReepers should save this memo to your computer.