No I don’t, I fully expect fraud, but I also don’t think you realize how incredibly toxic Hillary is, particularly in the rust belt. Hillary will certainly win Philly, but I don’t expect it to be nearly the margin she will need, fraud and all, to overwhelm the rest of the state.
I also don’t think you remotely understand the dynamics and decimation that “free” trade has created throughout the rust belt, and the secondary whammy Obamacare has put on those trying to survive in its wake.
Here a pretty good article about what has been going on in the small towns that make up the rust belt for the last 20 year, and what the people there have been dealing with.
The Republicans with their adherence to “free” trade dogma have prevented a natural realignment that has been long overdue in these states. Trumps dumping of this dogma can be the beginning, if not wasted on that realignment if republicans aren’t so stupid as to waste it. If handled properly the rust belt could become as reliable red as the south in a few cycles.
This is another good representative capture of the ground in PA... What locally are being Calle Trumpocrats. But even this term isn’t exactly right... As life time blue collar and working class democrats are coming to recognize the party no longer represents them... And are moving from disenfranchised to republican.. Most are completely missing this, and/or just chaulking it up to the dynamic of Trump and Hillary and not seeing it’s a much deeper and longer term thing going on.
http://nypost.com/2016/09/26/the-best-debate-takes-come-from-inside-the-bar/
There is zero inmate enthusiasm for Clinton, even the most ardent Democrats here offer no argument for her, only “she’s not Trump”. That’s not going to get it done.
Again, I think you are simply stuck on “this is how it always is” thinking, and just like every pundit in the Primary season came come to grips with the fact the old rules aren’t reliable here, because this is a disruptive cycle. Standard modeling, Trump should have never been nominee... Yet here we are... Standard modeling say Hillary should be blowing this out of the water... She’s not.
Take away the Trump and Hillary dynamic and go to standard modeling and you should have a tight race with a republican slight lead.. Bad economy, party in power shooting for 3rd term... Domestic and foreign unrest. All those point to the D being in an uphill battle to maintain under traditional modeling.
But we are Aywhere but in a traditional model. Ask yourself this, before the whole primary started, what was the one common thing nearly everyone said on both sides of the aisle? All I heard from anyone who remotely was into politics or would voice and opinion was “No Clinton,No Bush”. That was universal... Now you want to think this general view hasn’t changed?
Trump has maintained a lead among independents of 10-20 points since last year in polling, even when the polls claim he’s behind every internal I’ve seen that broke down has this lead consistent. Every internal I’ve seen pretty much shows Hillary has no more than a low 40s level of support max... Her only hope of a win is to keep Trumps numbers below that.. And it’s not going to happen.
Trump has had momentum since last year, Hillary has shown zero momentum at any time in this race. Yet you think it will be a squeaker for her? Only if Trump self destructs.
Anyone who wasn’t committed to Hillary long ago isn’t likely to vote for her... She’s a know entity, nothing she says and does will sway voters to her.
Again time will tell, you can keep your, this election is the same as 2012 glasses on, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that this cycle is anything but typical. In a few weeks we will see where it all lies.
I also don’t think you remotely understand the dynamics and decimation that “free” trade has created throughout the rust belt, and the secondary whammy Obamacare has put on those trying to survive in its wake.
How you can make such assertions is beyond me. You know nothing about me.
There is zero inmate enthusiasm for Clinton, even the most ardent Democrats here offer no argument for her, only “she’s not Trump”. That’s not going to get it done.
The polling does not reflect it in terms of who is winning. Hillary remains ahead significantly in PA if you can believe the Franklin and Marshall poll released today. We can argue about the reliability of the polls, but Trump is behind in most of them at the national level. The battleground polls show a very close race. I reiterate my statement that if Trump wins, it will be close and if Hillary wins, it will be a blowout. The Dem GOTV is very strong. I have seen it time and again in NoVA where I was both an election officer and poll watcher for over 20 years. And changing demographics are a critical factor along with voter fraud.
Take away the Trump and Hillary dynamic and go to standard modeling and you should have a tight race with a republican slight lead.. Bad economy, party in power shooting for 3rd term... Domestic and foreign unrest. All those point to the D being in an uphill battle to maintain under traditional modeling.
This is not a traditional race. It remains to be seen how influential Obama is in shaping the race given his above 50% approval ratings. He has devoted most of October along with his wife to the campaign trail on behalf of Hillary. And the fact that many of the GOPe like the Bushes, Kasich, Graham, and others are either not supporting Trump or mocking him, is not helpful.
But we are Aywhere but in a traditional model. Ask yourself this, before the whole primary started, what was the one common thing nearly everyone said on both sides of the aisle? All I heard from anyone who remotely was into politics or would voice and opinion was “No Clinton,No Bush”. That was universal... Now you want to think this general view hasn’t changed?
First, that was the primary. Clinton has been much more effective with her operations research along with support from virtually all of the MSM. When you have newspapers that never endorse a Dem in their history, endorsing Hillary, it undermines support from independents and the country club Reps. Second, it all depends on turnout.
Again time will tell, you can keep your, this election is the same as 2012 glasses on, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that this cycle is anything but typical. In a few weeks we will see where it all lies.
We have a better shot at winning than in 2012 or 2008. However, the Dem political machine is better organized and funded than ours. And they have the added advantage of a partisan MSM along with the domination of the education system and pop culture. And then there is demography that each year adds more Dem voters while we die out. Trump's outreach to blacks could be a game changer,