I also don’t think you remotely understand the dynamics and decimation that “free” trade has created throughout the rust belt, and the secondary whammy Obamacare has put on those trying to survive in its wake.
How you can make such assertions is beyond me. You know nothing about me.
There is zero inmate enthusiasm for Clinton, even the most ardent Democrats here offer no argument for her, only “she’s not Trump”. That’s not going to get it done.
The polling does not reflect it in terms of who is winning. Hillary remains ahead significantly in PA if you can believe the Franklin and Marshall poll released today. We can argue about the reliability of the polls, but Trump is behind in most of them at the national level. The battleground polls show a very close race. I reiterate my statement that if Trump wins, it will be close and if Hillary wins, it will be a blowout. The Dem GOTV is very strong. I have seen it time and again in NoVA where I was both an election officer and poll watcher for over 20 years. And changing demographics are a critical factor along with voter fraud.
Take away the Trump and Hillary dynamic and go to standard modeling and you should have a tight race with a republican slight lead.. Bad economy, party in power shooting for 3rd term... Domestic and foreign unrest. All those point to the D being in an uphill battle to maintain under traditional modeling.
This is not a traditional race. It remains to be seen how influential Obama is in shaping the race given his above 50% approval ratings. He has devoted most of October along with his wife to the campaign trail on behalf of Hillary. And the fact that many of the GOPe like the Bushes, Kasich, Graham, and others are either not supporting Trump or mocking him, is not helpful.
But we are Aywhere but in a traditional model. Ask yourself this, before the whole primary started, what was the one common thing nearly everyone said on both sides of the aisle? All I heard from anyone who remotely was into politics or would voice and opinion was “No Clinton,No Bush”. That was universal... Now you want to think this general view hasn’t changed?
First, that was the primary. Clinton has been much more effective with her operations research along with support from virtually all of the MSM. When you have newspapers that never endorse a Dem in their history, endorsing Hillary, it undermines support from independents and the country club Reps. Second, it all depends on turnout.
Again time will tell, you can keep your, this election is the same as 2012 glasses on, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that this cycle is anything but typical. In a few weeks we will see where it all lies.
We have a better shot at winning than in 2012 or 2008. However, the Dem political machine is better organized and funded than ours. And they have the added advantage of a partisan MSM along with the domination of the education system and pop culture. And then there is demography that each year adds more Dem voters while we die out. Trump's outreach to blacks could be a game changer,
F&M poll is laughable, If you buy that poll you are saying Hillary will outperform Obama in 12, and if you believe that, you are truly not paying attention. Polls are polls, they say what they say, that does not mean they are accurate, or depicting what is actually going on... Dewey defeats Truman and all that rot.
I can produce a poll to say whatever I want, its really not hard... oversampling, improper weighting, leading questions. Push Polls, gas lighting, etc... all exist and are real. Doesn’t mean the polls don’t exist, just means they are not accurate to what is going on.
The article I cited talked about dems going Trump, just about every single one of those people will not show up in a likely voter poll, because by their own admission they have not voted in the last 2 presidential races... so modern polling will filter them out as unlikely voters... Because their model says they aren’t likely to vote because they didn’t the last 2 times... but does that mean those people will not vote? I’d bet good money those people, and lots more like them will indeed be showing up on election day.
Secondly, if you thing Hillary is going to outperform Obama in 12, you are smoking some good good stuff. Hillary will not pull O’s numbers, anywhere. Polling showing her up 7 or 12 in PA is laughable on its face. Obama got the state by about 5.5 in 12, Hillary will not meet, let alone outperform Obama in PA... if you think that, I doubt you have been on the ground here at all.
OBama polling over 50%? So what. Hate to break this to you, but Clinton was over 50% in 2000, that didn’t mean he wasn’t toxic on the campaign trail. Obama is TOXIC in the rust belt, and he has the same interesting polling behavior that HIllary has.. being the less he’s seen the higher he polls.. the more he gets out in OCT and stumps, the lower he’ll and she will poll.
Finally you admit that this is not a typical cycle.. its just you can’t seem to recognize how untypical it is. You are applying typical viewpoint to the cycle... established politician against a neophyte... she she would... but that ignores the very foundation of why this cycle is atypical... its atypical because its a disruptive cycle... and Trump is the disruption, and he has been able to do everything traditional views have said he could not do for the past year.
You seem to think an endorsement matters, you are putting far too much weight on things that are not beneficial because you are approaching this as its just another election. When you are running a campaign claiming the system is stacked and corrupt, and you have a candidate that is clearly an embodiment of that corruption, endorsements of the status quo are not helpful, they just reinforce the corruption narrative. Every single crazy attack in the press, every single thing that in a traditional cycle would matter, doesn’t help.. it’s just reinforcing the disrupting narrative.
I do agree that if Trump is successful in his outreach to minorities, it could be a huge game changer, and his willingness to say the simple truth to these groups... look around, do you think the Dems have helped you? Are your neighborhoods better off? are your schools? are your children safer? If not, then why not give me a shot?
He will certainly do better with blacks than Romney or McCain did, if only for the fact that Hillary is not black... will he get more than 10%? We shall see, some polls have shone him far exceeding those numbers, and if he does, that’s another nail in Hillary’s coffin.
All those things you keep trying to argue are why Hillary will win, better ground game, more money, name recognition, party backing... all of those things were just points she was spotted at the start of the game... NONE of them have given her an increase to her functional max. Yes, she consolidated her base faster than Trump did, but she hasn’t had momentum once this entire cycle. The closest she’s had was when Trump let himself get off message with the kahn nonsense in early August, he quickly recovered and rebuilt his momentum... Hillary hasn’t had momentum once this cycle beyond Trump’s stumbling.
Trump has had momentum since last year, Hillary has none. Her original plan was to simply try to run out the clock, and it wasn’t going to work and won’t work, because Trump has the momentum and always has.
The dorslife tracking poll is about the only polls that’s showing the honest movement, Trump has been on a solid steady upward direction entire cycle, with the sole dip during the kahn nonsense where he got off message and got bogged down and allowed his momentum to be stalled, he adjusted and rebuilt... Hillary has never had momentum... she peaked right around the whole kahn nonsense... and her line has been on a fairly steady and predictable downward path since... while Trumps has been steadily and generally upward. This is the race, Hillary has a funcitonal max of 42/43% that’s it.
She is winning only those making under 35k, women, blacks, latinos, college grad and women. But the poll clearly shows, Trump is in the drivers seat in the race...
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
But when these same folks are asked who they think will win, not who they intend to vote for, HIllary is in the lead... Why is that? Because they are viewing the outcome like you are... falsely. If these folks vote the way they claim, Hillary will lose and lose solidly, but the majority of them think Hillary will win... You are making the I think Hillary will win, when the evidence is pretty solid she will not... Unless Trump self destructs between now and Nov 8.
Again, time will tell, a few more weeks and its over one way or another... either way I’ll get up and go to work the next day. So, we will see who’s view is correct. Given the “pundit” and “traditionalist” view has been WRONG for over a year, we will see which one winds up the winner in the end.