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Do Not Trust the Polls - October Surprise Thread #1
The Vanity Post | October 1st, 2016 | 1Eagle

Posted on 10/01/2016 8:26:40 PM PDT by 1-Eagle

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To: sam_whiskey
Demoralization begins now through November 8th, unless I am completely wrong and Pollsters are incorruptible. With all the money Hillary has to sling around, it is going to be hard for them to resist all the $$$$$$$ she's about to throw at them.

By all means: Forewarned is Forearmed. You have been warned. The Clintons have used skewed polls as propaganda before (vs Bob Dole), and the polls were so skewed that legislation was passed to force them to publish demographics etc, as a way to keep them from being so much of an influence on the election.

21 posted on 10/01/2016 9:07:14 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: CharlotteVRWC

THanks for passing that along about Ohio. Theres another case of propaganda at work... red herrings and etc. I refused to believe they would just let Ohio go, and now you tell us she’s still spending there. We can’t trust the media for anything, we just need to go vote.


22 posted on 10/01/2016 9:09:53 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: 1-Eagle

I earned there would be push polling and gas lighting after the debate to support the narrative that they had which would be Hillary won thr debate and now has momentum.

It’s garbage of course but predictable.

When you have several polls showing trump getting undecideds 3 to 1 to 7 to 1 after the debate it’s insane to think Hillary gained on the polls.

Ohio is lost, FL is lost and NC is lost. But she’s got momentum?

NYT doesn’t need to write article claiming OH is no longer a bellweather if she has momentum.

Expect the establishment and left to go completely Ape poop insane with everything you can imagine trying to hold onto power between now and Nov8


23 posted on 10/01/2016 9:11:01 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Chode

yes indeed! Was just reading where the dead are registering to vote in Virginia already! We knew that by the time early voting opened up there had to be some media shock and awe and poll propaganda. Hillary isn’t exciting to anybody so they gotta stir things up.


24 posted on 10/01/2016 9:11:59 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: 1-Eagle
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A 'SCIENTIFIC POLL'. The average student having done well in any college level Statistics Class can tell you that.

A "scientific poll" assumes that you select from the full population a RANDOM sample. Once you have a RANDOM sample of sufficient sample size, you can predict the makeup of the entire population within some margin of error usually 95% (your will be within the margin of error 95% of the time). The problem is getting a random sample. It is not like drawing red or blue marbles out of a well mixed bag.

Some of the marbles will not come out of the bag and tell you their color, red marbles are more likely to say I ain't talking.

Some marbles are not in the bag, red marbles are more likely to be at work.

Some marbles change their color once picked, due to wanting to appear to have the "right" color. Red marbles are more likely to be thrown on the floor for being red.

Some of the selectors can feel the difference between a red and blue marble and will only pick blue marbles.

Any of these will lead to a flawed sample which makes the margin of error very large and thus the "poll" meaningless.

25 posted on 10/01/2016 9:15:43 PM PDT by super7man (Madam Defarge, knitting, knitting, always knitting)
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To: caww

Just to remind: democrats have the ground game. Obama handed over his computerized voter info that tells them everything about everybody. If you have a facebook page and you said you like cats, they will knock on your door and ask you about cats and by the way can you please vote for Hillary. They have the ground game and tons of $$$$$$. Its going to be close and we all have to vote no matter what the media is saying or what the polls are lying to us.


26 posted on 10/01/2016 9:17:50 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: caww; FreeperCell

Still have a land line as well as a cell. Getting a lot of calls from pollsters on the land line. Always say I’m voting for Trump. Everything else is up for grabs. I know how I answer so that’s why I don’t trust polls.


27 posted on 10/01/2016 9:30:05 PM PDT by barker (I'm with Trump)
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To: 1-Eagle
Actually, I think the skewed polls will actually hurt Clinton than help her. The only real "poll" to look at is the enthusiasm "poll" of supporters. With Trump supporters, whether or not if the polls show him 20 points ahead or 20 points behind, they are still going to come out to vote. With Hillary, I doubt it ( though you can't account for the dead and illegal voting ). Hillary is lucky if she can pull 500 people on a good day. Trump has to turn people away. For example, here is a line for a Trump speech in PA today ( it is a little blurry because youtube increases the size of the video, be you will get the gist ):

Line

28 posted on 10/01/2016 9:33:29 PM PDT by TheCipher (Suppose you were an idiot and suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself. Mark Twain)
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To: 1-Eagle
Who determines the margin of error? By what means do they calculate it?

Dusting off my BS in mathematics to answer this question.

Margin of Error is a very misunderstood term. It does NOT represent the total amount a poll may be off. It ONLY represents how far it is likely to be off based on the size of the sample. It does not take into account the kind of people making up the sample.

For example if your sample is 1000 Democrats, the Margin of Error would be the same as if it were 1000 voters of a more realistic distribution. But obviously the poll would be way off at predicting the outcome, far beyond the Margin of Error.

Specifically a "Margin of Error" is a calculation that assumes a perfectly representative sample (right number of each demographic etc). This is never a safe assumption. But given this assumption the MoE will be the possible range that a "perfect" sample of that size would fall in a certain percentage of the time. I think it usually is calculated as 95% of the time.

In this year's elections, nobody has a good idea how to get a good sampling...and indeed some pollsters seem to be intentionally getting some that are over optimistic for the Democrats.

29 posted on 10/01/2016 9:35:51 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Hating Islam is the natural consequence of caring about people in the Middle East, including Muslims)
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To: 1-Eagle

As much as I would like to believe the polls are wrong, 2012 showed us we were wrong for believing the polls were wrong.


30 posted on 10/01/2016 9:44:08 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: 1-Eagle

If the famous Rat ground game is relying on the people showing up at her rallies Hillary has a big problem.


31 posted on 10/01/2016 9:50:25 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: AndyTheBear
Thanks for explaining that a "margin for error" is actually a fabricated "indicator". But this is not how it is used. It is used by pollsters and "journalists" to indicate an imagined degree of accuracy, even referring to the results as being "within the margin of error". In 1996, approximately 15 polls were so badly off their predictions that they were WAY outside of their margins of error, some even more than 10% outside the margin. Only 2 were inside their margins of error, one of those being Zogby.

So "margins of error" were proven to be nothing but figments of the pollsters imaginations in 1996. And so the polls that showed Dole would lose to Clinton by 20% or 18% had so much egg on their faces when he lost by around 8%. A British journalist observing all this wrote that if the polls and media had not been so skewed and slanted against him, Dole/Kemp might have had a chance.

32 posted on 10/01/2016 9:51:20 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: libh8er

No, 2012 the polls were right. They did not account for the fraud. Here in VA there were serious problems. Even the people that ran the election admit it. We had to stand in line four a couple hours because “there was something wrong with the computers”. I have voted at the same building for twenty years. That never happened before. In our precinct there were fewer than half the 0bama bumper stickers yet IN THIS PRECINCT Zero got MORE VOTES than in 2008. Bullshit.


33 posted on 10/01/2016 9:54:34 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Some Fat Guy in L.A.

Agree totally. I hope we will all be sure we get the word out about how polls are “just another tool in the propagandists toolbox” so none of our family friends neighbors etc are fooled by them. Its so important to make up our minds just to vote no matter how long the line, or what the polls or media are saying.


34 posted on 10/01/2016 9:55:13 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: 1-Eagle
It does indeed drive me nuts when I hear the talking heads saying "outside the Margin of Error" as if it means much. But I don't think its accurate to say they are figments of the imagination. It is a real thing used in probability theory. Its just not useful to know, and is misleading when it comes to political polls.
35 posted on 10/01/2016 10:04:50 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Hating Islam is the natural consequence of caring about people in the Middle East, including Muslims)
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To: FreeperCell

“The only person that answers a landline these days is a poor person. How can any phone poll be accurate?”

No, they all got Obamaphones. Just look at the taxes on your cell bill.


36 posted on 10/01/2016 10:23:43 PM PDT by sagar
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To: wastoute
"If the famous Rat ground game is relying on the people showing up at her rallies Hillary has a big problem."

The rat ground game has one advantage -- their base is concentrated in urban areas and they bus in... logistically much simpler. Look at the county by county map ... rats win relatively few counties but they are all high density urban areas.


37 posted on 10/01/2016 10:27:34 PM PDT by sagar
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To: ichabod1

I think you may be right as the dozen “bellwether counties” are not being reported. I wish I knew what the current sentiments are in Vigo County, IN and Hamilton County, OH. If they are currently leaning red, I would think in this atmosphere that they would be less likely to be reported.


38 posted on 10/01/2016 10:36:26 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
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To: barker
Still have a land line as well as a cell. Getting a lot of calls from pollsters on the land line. Always say I’m voting for Trump. Everything else is up for grabs. I know how I answer so that’s why I don’t trust polls.

That is funny! I'm in same situation as you, I always answer that I am voting for 'Illery.... That is why I don't trust polls, ha ha!

39 posted on 10/01/2016 10:54:30 PM PDT by SandwicheGuy (*The butter acts as a lubricant and speeds up the CPU)
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To: sagar

Ah, but that is why Trump’s black support is key. Think about it. If he really peels 20 or 30% of blacks from the Rats they won’t be able to play games in those precincts. And these are people who will have CHANGED PARTIES. Not likely to be lackadaisical. Probably not real interested in allowing the chicanery that they know goes on.


40 posted on 10/01/2016 10:57:53 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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